Centre right wins

It seems that our predictive ability is uncanny

My concern remains at the insistence of the right to make hiring and firing  extremely easy. This is something that most decent societies take a moderate position on. It rewards unscrupulous employers at a time of high unemployment, and SDKU should not underestimate how much this might help to send them to opposition once again... If they allow again employers to keep employees as temps forever...

The mixed bag of results from the election mean the following

1. We are likely to get the first Slovak female PM, ms Radicova (pictured) given that the guy hugging her is the leader of the hungarian minority party, chances are that relations with Hungary are going to be vastly improved
   
2. Robert Fico (PM) is still popular by a united left of centre. His party resembles PASOK in greece of the 1990es to 2001. Corrupt to a certain extent, enough to keep itself relevant, and keep the right on its toes.
   
3. The right has won the election in the sense that the 4 parties that form the right (Christian non-democrats, Hungarians, Christian democrats, SAS neoliberals) are fairly moderate and would provide a welcome counterbalancing interregnum for Fico during which he can reconsider some of his extremist excesses (not so much in policy but in style).
   
4. Most of the press is anti-Fico perhaps overly so. The left should be respected and the country needs a serious newspaper of the responsible left.
   
5. Preliminary results of Slovakia’s general election, released Sunday by the Slovak Statistics Office, are likely to lead to the replacement of Prime Minister Robert Fico’s left-of-center cabinet with a business-friendly right-of-center coalition that will try to improve the country’s recently strained relations with Hungary. (However the Hungarian side seems to be on a nationalist crescento of its own making)
   
6. The new ruling coalition will likely include politicians who represent Slovakia’s large Hungarian minority, potentially helping Slovakia mend fences with its southern neighbor.
   
7. Although Mr. Fico’s Smer-Social Democrats party came first in Saturday’s elections, taking 34.8% of the vote, it won’t likely find suitable coalition partners in the 150-seat parliament.
   
8. Preliminary results showed the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, or SDKU, with 15.4% of the vote, followed by the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party, or SaS, with 12.1%, the Christian Democratic Movement KDH with 8.5%, and the Hungarian minority party Most-HID with 8.1%. Final election results are expected late Sunday.
   
9. The new parliament will thus be dominated by right-of-center parties led by the Christian Democratic SDKU, and the Hungarian minority party Most-HID. This coalition of four that will also include the Christian Democratic KDH and the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party, and will hold a total of 79 parliament seats, compared with 62 seats to be held by Smer. The remaining nine mandates will be in the hands of the extremist Slovak Nationalist Party, or SNS (who's vote halved and nearly didn't make it to parliament!).
   
10. The Freedom and Solidarity Party (SAS) was formed last year by Richard Sulik, an economist who designed the flat-rate tax system introduced by the previous SDKU-led governments that ruled in 1998-2006. Mr. Sulik’s party, supported by mostly young voters thanks to its Internet-centered campaign, will be a novice in the Slovak parliament. Its agenda that includes the decriminalization of cannabis use for medical purposes and registered partnerships for same-sex couples is likely to face strong headwinds in this conservative country.
    
    
11. Nevertheless the solid result of Mr. Sulik’s party, the third-largest grouping after Smer and SDKU with 22 seats in the incoming parliament, showed voters’ discontent with the more established two junior partners in Mr. Fico’s outgoing leftist coalition cabinet.
    
    
12. Slovakia will have the first woman PM! A very good signal to be sent abroad. The Christian Democrats SDKU led by, run by Iveta Radicova, a sociology professor and a former presidential candidate, has long opposed Slovakia’s current labor regulations introduced by the Smer-led cabinet, which stipulate minimum wage requirements and limit employers’ freedom to dismiss employees.
    
13. Talking to reporters in a live television broadcast in the small hours of Sunday, Ms. Radicova, likely to become the first-ever female prime minister of Slovakia, sounded upbeat about her country’s prospects.

“Slovakia chose the path of responsibility that will help tackle its current problems,” Ms. Radicova said, referring mainly to lackluster economic growth and high unemployment.
“We’ll again turn Slovakia into Europe’s tiger,” she said, referring to the country’s reputation during the double-digit economic growth period in 2007 and 2008.

Slovakia will have elections in June 2010 - Our predictions on the Slovak election

Most likely many people are wondering what happens next. (also enjoy the old pic of Robert he must have spent ages on that hair ) terrible :)

Here are some unscientific predictions (but then again remember there is no such thing as a scientific prediction)

1. Robert Fico the current PM will be re-elected (90%) but probably with more right-leaning coalition partners.
2. Taxes: "He emphasised that the government had not increased taxes (his measures are fiscally neutral) and added that any new government taking office after the June parliamentary elections must continue this trend. "
3. Vladimir Meciar is heading towards political oblivion without the 5% to make it to parliament (good riddance).

I think that eventually Fico will have to raise some more taxes somewhere because of the worldwide crisis, but it will not be by much.

In other news, results  of  a  telephone  survey carried  out  by  Polis  Slovakia  agency  show that  most  people  would  welcome  seeing a leftist-rightist  government  after  the  parliamentary  elections  in  June.  The  survey  was carried out on March 13-16 of  this year on a representative  sample  of  1,280 respondents Based  on  its  results,  38  percent  of  those polled want Slovakia to have a leftist-rightist government  after  the  elections,  18.7  percent of the respondents want a rightist government and 12.9 percent of people a leftist one. More than one in five participants do not care about the  orientation  of  the  government  after  the elections, while one  in ten respondents could not answer the question.

I generally believe that Fico got some big an important things right (euro, taxation etc) and alot of smaller things wrong and very wrong. The coalition parties he chose were the worst possible.

Would you buy a used car from this guy?

A blast from the past...

step by step how to create your election winning coalition

some interesting ideas by a Slovak PHD student in Denmark on the recipe for winning elections (i would say that this could have worked in any country with a electoral system favouring coalitions )

Another interesting piece is how the European Union is civilising the Thatcherite excesses of the UK's anti employee stance:

1. Britain in the Social Chapter, giving British workers the rights already enjoyed by their continental colleagues.
   
   
2. implemented EU wide laws on working time, limiting the length of time workers can be obliged by their employer to work to 48 hours per week.
   
   
3. required, for the first time in Britain, a guaranteed right to paid holiday.
   
   
4. brought in the European works council laws giving new rights to workers in transnational companies.
   
   
5. introduced proper procedures for information & consultation of workers on all significant changes affecting companies with over 50 employees.
   
   
6. reversed the burden of proof in discrimination cases, putting the onus on employers to prove that they do not discriminate.
   
   
7. give both parents the right to time off when a child is born or adopted.
   
   
8. brought in measures to give part time workers the same rights as full time workers as regards training, pensions, maternity rights and leave.
   
   
9. improved the rights of temporary workers regarding pay and paid leave.
   
   
10. brought in fines for airlines for deliberate overbooking as well as doubled cash compensation for stranded air passengers with the right to meals, refreshments and hotel accommodation if necessary while passengers wait.
    

Vlado Meciar undermining the coalition just after 100 days... a taste of things to come...

Older and not wiser

A very interesting short from the state news agency SITA on what Vlado Meciar the merry crook dinosaur has said about his participation in the coalition...




"HZDS: We Want What Belongs to Us The governing-coalition HZDS party is dissatisfied with its position in the governing Coalition, Hospodarske noviny daily reports. HZDS chairman Vladimir Meciar has already provided hints about the possible consequences of this. HZDS MPs have shown their disagreement with the state budget proposals for 2007. In addition, according to Meciar, even the Cabinet's tax reforms will not be approved in Parliament.

First of all Meciar's party failed to receive the top posts it wanted, now the party's regional members are unhappy about the slow pace at which regional posts are being allocated. "Many of our people had to leave their posts very quickly in 1998 (when Meciar's HZDS-led government lost power). They want to come back now," said HZDS MP Milan Rehak. On the other hand, HZDS's coalition partner, the Slovak National Party (SNS) appears to be satisfied with the way power has been allocated. "

Not a bad summary very close to my own view

Not a bad summary very close to my own view
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=16759

"...European economic elites, who fear that Fico will undo some of the neo-liberal reforms introduced under Dzurinda, have also condemned the (governing coalition) partnership.

The trans-Atlantic connection, which was very strong after US President George W Bush’s visit to Bratislava last year, has gone strangely quiet. Fico made it clear in his campaign that pulling Slovak troops out of Iraq was one of his highest priorities. This has become a reality, as the upcoming rotation of Slovak troops will be the last despite pleas from Washington for their continued commitment.

Doubts aside, the new coalition has confirmed its commitment to its international obligations. And although Slovakia is withdrawing its troops in Iraq, Fico has pledged to continue to help rebuild Iraq by other means. Fico also has promised Brussels that his government would continue with reforms, including plans to adopt the Euro by 2009.

So for now, it seems that 100 days is not enough to determine what effect Fico's coalition of strange bedfellows with have on Slovakia's future, as the internal political power struggles continue to play themselves out.

Slovakia has been touted as a model of democratic reform for former Soviet satellite states. A stable rise in GDP, increasing wages, falling unemployment and continuing foreign investment signify success. However, internal political developments since the June elections have set Slovakia on a path that is not altogether clear.

Smer, which means "direction" in Slovak, should live up to its name. Arguably, Slovakia must mature and not be so easily swayed towards the extreme by following populist parties. The hope is that Fico will be able keep a watchful eye on Meciar and Slota, keeping their negative influence to a minimum while continuing to implement vital reforms and uphold international commitments.

---

Zachary Wieluns is a Slovak-based writer. He has a BA in History from Colby-Sawyer College in New Hampshire and an MA in Euroculture from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN)."

Meciar History

Unlike his political opponents Vladimir Meciar embraces the german model...

Vladimir Meciar, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia, was often feared and hated, and during his stay in power he proved to be a dictator-like leader. Meciar was the first prime minister of independent Slovakia.

For a typical sample of his distinctive style in political speeches please click here (part of the excellent blog Roger has)

In April, 2001, he reportedly said, "99% of what they were writing about me wasn't true, especially the negative part." Former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar blames the media for loss of popularity. He has sued the newspaper, but the Highest Court canceled the lawsuit outcome in early April of 2001 between the former Mr. Meciar's government and the daily newspaper SME, which was supposed to pay each government member a high fine for writing badly about them. This lawsuit has been getting much publicity in the last five years, as many saw it as a way to shut down the newspaper entirely.


Meciar was born on July 26, 1942. In a town of central Slovak called Zvolen. The small town was surrounded by rugged countryside and some hillside villages which provided Meciar with his personal and political basis. In 1959 he began to work for a local government administration in Ziar na Hronom as a clerk dealing with economic matters. In 1962 Meciar joined the communist party. Following that, in 1965, he graduated from Komsomol College in Moscow. The college was a training ground for young communists. He soon rose to become chairman at the District National Committee in Ziar. From 1967 through 1969, Meciar was the deputy chairman of the district People’s Control Committee.

Luring tactics were used in his campaigns. Meciar appealed to women. He has rugged features tipped off with a little lost boy smile. In 1994 he used his looks for a poster which the slogan said, “Only he can do it!” Meciar did not want to be left behind. He did all he could to keep on top of things. He was accused of blackmailing, brow beating his allies, and using authoritarian and dictatorial methods of governing. He was also charged by his enemies with personally creating a crisis which demonstrated his persistent political style of "Divide and Rule." He still managed to stay on the top whenever he was pushed down, and no other Slovak politician could even come close to him.

Meciar met his match with President Michal Kovac. The blood between Kovac and Meciar thickened when they battled for control over the secret service. Meciar won this battle and appointed a close ally, Ivan Lexa, as the head of the secret service. He accomplished this by having parliament vote to transfer the right of appointment of the head position from the president to the government. As if this wasn’t enough, another twist was added. Serious allegations of overt political use of the police and secret services were brought to attention by a saddening event. Michal Kovac Jr. was driven across the Slovak-Austrian border in the trunk of a car on August 31, 1995, and confined in connection with a fraud case in Germany. President Kovac publicly accused the secret service of kidnapping his son. But the only witness was a former police officer who was killed in a car explosion. And coincidentally two police investigators were removed from the case after implying that the secret service did take part. But no one could actually prove exactly what had happened, and Meciar said that repeatedly. And so it was, nothing was proven.

On a Slovak television program, Meciar denied lying about the course he took in his political life. He said, “Nobody has ever proved any lie by me.. I don’t accuse anybody, even when I know who is lying and when. I have more feelings for the truth in myself than all other Slovak politicians.” On a lighter subject, on the television program, Meciar describes himself as a hopeless romantic who likes to wander through towns or woods when the moon is full. He also said that his favorite composer is Tchaikovsky. He has a passion for watching wrestling until the late night hours.

Meciar had a large part in the split between Slovakia and the Czech Republic in January 1993. Although he did do this for his country, he was still censured by other foreign governments. Meciar’s party had won the general elections in 1998. He got the most individual votes with 470,556 oppose to 304,071 for Mikulas Dzurinda, one of his opponents. Despite the results in the general elections, Meciar’s party decided to nominate someone else to try and form a new government, ousting Meciar. Meciar then in October bid farewell to his followers. He did this in a rather unusual way. He said farewell to them in a song: “ I loved the life and I still love it. I lived in full, I gave you everything. And what am I supposed to do now? Let us sing: Farewell, I am leaving you, I didn’t hurt any of you. Be well."

Vladimer Meciar proved to be a powerful, dictator-like leader. Although some agreed with his ways and supported him, others thought that his authoritarian way of governing is the reason Slovakia has found itself in trouble.