Showing posts with label Mikulas Dzurinda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mikulas Dzurinda. Show all posts

The incoming conservative government

The conservatives are coming...












Bela Bugar ----- Jan Figel-----Iveta Radicova--Richard Sulik


Generally a fairly centrist lot, the christian party (KDH) is the most left wing of the coalition, Then its the hungarian/slovak party of Most HID. Jan Figel of the christian party, Iveta Radicova of the SDKU which is the largest party of the coalition and which will be ruling, and finally Richard Sulik the inventor of the 19% tax in Slovakia when he was working for SDKU in the 90s and 00s.

I feel that this government needs to be aware of how many of the certainties of the 90es in economics are being challenged and have changed. They need to show that they have understood that the broad based employee-class prosperity must not be hurt because that underpins the country's economy.

Tight and conservative regulation of the banks is also vital.

Centre right wins

It seems that our predictive ability is uncanny

My concern remains at the insistence of the right to make hiring and firing  extremely easy. This is something that most decent societies take a moderate position on. It rewards unscrupulous employers at a time of high unemployment, and SDKU should not underestimate how much this might help to send them to opposition once again... If they allow again employers to keep employees as temps forever...

The mixed bag of results from the election mean the following

  1. We are likely to get the first Slovak female PM, ms Radicova (pictured) given that the guy hugging her is the leader of the hungarian minority party, chances are that relations with Hungary are going to be vastly improved
  2. Robert Fico (PM) is still popular by a united left of centre. His party resembles PASOK in greece of the 1990es to 2001. Corrupt to a certain extent, enough to keep itself relevant, and keep the right on its toes.
  3. The right has won the election in the sense that the 4 parties that form the right (Christian non-democrats, Hungarians, Christian democrats, SAS neoliberals) are fairly moderate and would provide a welcome counterbalancing interregnum for Fico during which he can reconsider some of his extremist excesses (not so much in policy but in style).
  4. Most of the press is anti-Fico perhaps overly so. The left should be respected and the country needs a serious newspaper of the responsible left.
  5. Preliminary results of Slovakia’s general election, released Sunday by the Slovak Statistics Office, are likely to lead to the replacement of Prime Minister Robert Fico’s left-of-center cabinet with a business-friendly right-of-center coalition that will try to improve the country’s recently strained relations with Hungary. (However the Hungarian side seems to be on a nationalist crescento of its own making)
  6. The new ruling coalition will likely include politicians who represent Slovakia’s large Hungarian minority, potentially helping Slovakia mend fences with its southern neighbor.
  7. Although Mr. Fico’s Smer-Social Democrats party came first in Saturday’s elections, taking 34.8% of the vote, it won’t likely find suitable coalition partners in the 150-seat parliament.
  8. Preliminary results showed the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, or SDKU, with 15.4% of the vote, followed by the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party, or SaS, with 12.1%, the Christian Democratic Movement KDH with 8.5%, and the Hungarian minority party Most-HID with 8.1%. Final election results are expected late Sunday.
  9. The new parliament will thus be dominated by right-of-center parties led by the Christian Democratic SDKU, and the Hungarian minority party Most-HID. This coalition of four that will also include the Christian Democratic KDH and the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party, and will hold a total of 79 parliament seats, compared with 62 seats to be held by Smer. The remaining nine mandates will be in the hands of the extremist Slovak Nationalist Party, or SNS (who's vote halved and nearly didn't make it to parliament!).
  10. The Freedom and Solidarity Party (SAS) was formed last year by Richard Sulik, an economist who designed the flat-rate tax system introduced by the previous SDKU-led governments that ruled in 1998-2006. Mr. Sulik’s party, supported by mostly young voters thanks to its Internet-centered campaign, will be a novice in the Slovak parliament. Its agenda that includes the decriminalization of cannabis use for medical purposes and registered partnerships for same-sex couples is likely to face strong headwinds in this conservative country.

  11. Nevertheless the solid result of Mr. Sulik’s party, the third-largest grouping after Smer and SDKU with 22 seats in the incoming parliament, showed voters’ discontent with the more established two junior partners in Mr. Fico’s outgoing leftist coalition cabinet.

  12. Slovakia will have the first woman PM! A very good signal to be sent abroad. The Christian Democrats SDKU led by, run by Iveta Radicova, a sociology professor and a former presidential candidate, has long opposed Slovakia’s current labor regulations introduced by the Smer-led cabinet, which stipulate minimum wage requirements and limit employers’ freedom to dismiss employees.
  13. Talking to reporters in a live television broadcast in the small hours of Sunday, Ms. Radicova, likely to become the first-ever female prime minister of Slovakia, sounded upbeat about her country’s prospects.
“Slovakia chose the path of responsibility that will help tackle its current problems,” Ms. Radicova said, referring mainly to lackluster economic growth and high unemployment.
“We’ll again turn Slovakia into Europe’s tiger,” she said, referring to the country’s reputation during the double-digit economic growth period in 2007 and 2008.

A world trend that Slovakia needs to avoid being sucked into.

Slovakia has successfully developed a political system split between a credible centre right loose coalition and a centre left party. They might all be a bit too nationalistic overall owing to the past of Slovakia as a captive nation either to Hungary or the Austrohungarian empire, or then under communism in a shotgun wedding with the Czechs. This relishing of one's sovereignty can get a bit jarring at times, and is the reason for some superficial tensions with the Hungarians. However no borders are changing and the most extreme of the politicians of the far right in Slovakia are so unbelievably corrupt and their extremism so insincere, that he can never express more than 10% of the electorate.

Freedom (is not just economic)

The danger is not from the petty authoritarian tendencies of Robert Fico the PM of Slovakia as portrayed in some fairly US centric Slovak commentators on the right. It is true that power is exercised fairly strongly in Slovakia (but that was true of the Dzurinda administration which had a fairly radical and successful political agenda with some excesses).

That is actually to be welcomed as in Slovakia governments still have the power to change policy rather than trying to copy each other like in the UK or the US. Fico is an old-fashioned conviction politician who does seem to want to entrench some social democratic standards in Slovakia and actually believes in certain things and within the ability of the state budget he has provided some support to weaker people without for the most part restricting the ability of those who can take care of themselves from prospering. The fact that he doesn't seem to adore and suck up to rich people is not bad at all.

It is also understandable for example to hate tabloids (they have tried to disturb his personal life on many occasions with a unbelievable audacity) as he does because they do express the worst in a society and they do try to subvert the political debate to serve their owners interests (e.g. the Sun in the UK). Although i don't like the press law in Slovakia, I always thought that tabloid journalists engage in very murky circles. We need to draw a line between the financial times and the Sun. Tabloids are a caricature of journalism and a force for evil. Broadsheets however should not be put in the same bag. Fico should respect constructive and intelligent criticism and debate.

The decline of the business model of newspapers makes them even more likely to be bought by organised interests that want to have the upper hand in the political debate. Again this has happened in any country with thriving tabloids that express and represent the worst in human nature.

If one looks to the UK, the extreme consensus between Labour and the Conservatives has hollowed out politics of all relevance and has led to what feels like an ungoverned state. The result is that Britain, from a fairly well governed state, is ending up as an over-indebted country with an increasingly extremist electorate (Anti-EU, BNP growing, curtailed civil liberties through extreme anti-terror laws) and it certainly feels like it is the beginning of this process.

Free market economics has changed our democracies. Ironically these policies are bringing about authoritarianism back. The mechanism this works through are principally two.

  1. Some citizens become very rich which allows them to influence the debate through their wealth (buying TV stations or other media), they are likely to influence it through entrenching the status quo that allowed them to become rich. Essentially some have a huge megaphone that allows them to promote their ideas irrespective of their value. Deregulation was one such idea and that led to the financial crisis.
  2. The better off in society -even if slightly better off- do not vote taking into account the overall interests of the country, but simply seek to re-enforce the policies that keep them better off. Their prosperity is dependent on low social mobility and change. That is not a high quality democracy.

Ergo: Too much political consensus between left and right is a mistake

So where has this footballisation of politics and public life come from. Why are so many governments turning more and more authoritarian?

A review of a very interesting book about how increasingly the excesses of the right wing ideologues like Tony Blair (no mistake here) stemming from the time of Reagan have pushed the emergence of a feudal flavour of capitalism to be found in economically prosperous but culturally and democratically backward and stifling states like Malaysia or Singapore. Note that corruption is endemic in this sort of Fascistic regime. Its a fusion of tame consumer/citizens, propaganda, really low quality of democracy and essentially a well disguised oligarchy with some democratic traits.

Because there are no ideas or ideals in the debate, the debate becomes irrelevant. People don't vote so the extremists get bigger and bigger shares. Also a public fed a diet of tabloid news is likely to be far more susceptible to extremist politics. The stifling consensus where whatever one votes they get the same policies has brought about stability but also an erosion of democracy and brought about the politician who is popular not because he wants to do things that you as a citizen agree with, but because you like his dress sense, or you would like to be as rich as him. Berlusconi is in that mould at least partially.

Ironically globalisation and competition is now forcing European and American states to lose any flourishes of democracy and free speech they developed in the past to revert to gameshow host type of leaders (e.g. Berlusconi, Zapatero, Blair, Bush). The citizen is economically free (kind of because corruption is playing its part to skew even this). But policy is strictly set and permanent and not something that an elected leader can change. The countries that this is entrenched in the most are the US and the UK.

-----------------------------

Review by Samuel Brittan

Published: November 2 2009 06:24 | Last updated: November 2 2009 06:24

Freedom for Sale: How We Made Money and Lost Our Liberty
By John Kampfner
Simon & Schuster £18.99, 304 pages

It is no longer a startling observation that the more western governments have spoken about freedom and democracy in the struggle against their enemies, the more the freedom part, at least, has been curtailed. In Britain, the Thatcher government tightened the screws on freedom of expression. The Blair government went further in curtailing historical rights such as habeas corpus and free speech.

In my view, the most profound study of this process in its historical context is Ben Wilson’s What Price Liberty? John Kampfner’s Freedom for Sale, on the other hand, makes up in breadth what it lacks in depth. While Wilson was mainly concerned with ­Britain, with a few glances across the Atlantic, Kampfner, a British political journalist, includes the US, Italy, Russia, ­Singapore, China, India and the Arab Emirates, and in nearly all he discovers similar erosion. Like Wilson, he attacks the ­thesis that capitalism inevitably leads to personal and political freedom as well as democracy. He cites Benjamin Franklin, who declared in 1755 that “those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety”. The excuse has always been that freedom is sacrificed for prosperity and security. Kampfner is inclined to concede that there might be something in this.

If he had only included the Scandinavian countries, for instance, in his survey, he could have seen that personal and political freedom need not be an impediment to prosperity. Too many businessmen regard critics of the Chinese and Russian regimes as doctrinaire nuisances who impede their making of money.

Security is more difficult; but Kampfner has little difficulty in showing that the restraints imposed by the Blair government went far beyond the legitimate struggle against terrorism. During his term of office Blair “had bequeathed to his successor a surveillance state unrivalled anywhere in the democratic world”.

It seems to me that the problem with Blair was – to put it kindly – an aversion to abstract thought. Hence his sneering remarks about the liberal tradition. With Gordon Brown it is different. He believes the hallmark of progressive thinking is a positive attitude to the state against “right wing” laisser faire. While this attitude stems from a preoccupation with the economic and social arguments of the 20th century, it spills over into a carelessness about civil liberties as well. In practice both New Labour prime ministers were guided by the demands of the security chiefs and the desire to be seen to be “tough”.

Politicians and mandarins tend to confuse politically embarrassing leaks with threats to national security, as Kampfner points out. On a more trivial but revealing level, Kampfner quotes a French journalist writing from the UK: “Here you are actively encouraged to denounce your neighbour for not paying road tax or putting a bin out early … There are councils that spy on their taxpayers as if they were common criminals… the Home Office proposes to set up a database holding information on every telephone call made, every email sent and every website visited by every single British citizen.” Nor do the media, who value excessively their access to top government figures, come off much better. To get the point, you only have to hear or read that “Brown has decided” or “Cameron has decided” on matters where these politicians thankfully still have no such power.

Kampfner pessimistically accepts that an authoritarian capitalism on the Singapore model is spreading worldwide: the people have made their Faustian bargain. Yet I still cherish the hope, not that the masses will read John Stuart Mill, but that enough personal experiences of the basic inhumanity of this model will lead to some kind of liberal reaction in some countries and some times.

Mikulas the EU Foreign Minister speculation is not confirmed

The more time passes the more I've come to appreciate his reign. Without him Slovakia would be heading in a weird direction compared to a very right-wing world. I think that despite him being a bit too liberal for my tastes, he did do some real legislative work and he did create real value for the Slovak republic. He should be more respected than he is.

This country needs to keep an eye on the backroom deals of government mostly, otherwise Slovakia is doing brilliantly. The next tasks are the absobsion of Roma and hungarians into society and the time when people don't feel the need to vote for an ethnic political party because there is no need.

Dzurinda recently was touted in diplomatic circles as an EU foreign minister. If it was really offered, then he could have gone for it, I am sure this ex-railway executive has the brains and is a master negotiator and a rather Machiavellian person. Overall though he seems to have Slovakia's best interest at heart. I squeaky clean Dzurinda (from a corruption perspective) would have been Slovakia's ideal leader, but i doubt such a person would be able to ever form a coalition in Slovakia, there are simply too many interests in government spending, but the situation is improving every year. Let us not forget that there is a lot of money sloshing about in politics throughout the world, with America being quite a corrupt place as well... I count lobbying as corruption btw, because errr that is what it is. I give you money so you do something for me..

anyway here is the item about Dzurinda going to Europe for high office:

"Former Slovak Prime Minister and SDKU leader, Mikulas Dzurinda, says he doesn't plan to leave for a job in Brussels. He responded to speculations that he could replace the senior EU representative for common foreign and security policy, Javier Solana. Dzurinda said that he didn’t get any offer for a function in Brussels. "What is written in foreign newspapers is an evidence that Slovakia has gained respect abroad. My priority is to remain SDKU chairman and lead the party to parliamentary elections," he said. However, he didn't rule out that in the future, he may be interested in the European institutions. The information that Dzurinda has some good prospects to replace Solana appeared last week via Austrian paper Kurier, which quoted diplomatic sources."

Dzurinda says Fico is not going to change Slovakia's direction


I think this is the second time former PM Mikulas Dzurinda goes on the record to show that Slovakia should not be lumped in with other CEE countries. The country is largely disciplined and its behaving more like Estonia and Slovenia rather than Poland or Hungary.


If true, then i think that is the best outcome, a denmark like social protection with pro business policies to pay for it but not at the expense of employee welfare. This ought to be a civilised country's credo, and i would dearly like to see Slovakia go in that direction.


From the interview of Dzurinda to the Associated Press:


Former Slovak Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda expressed optimism Wednesday that the economic reforms he pushed will largely survive under the leftist-led bloc that ousted him this summer. In eight years as prime minister, Dzurinda oversaw the introduction of a flat tax and other pro-market reforms that made Slovakia popular with foreign investors. This summer, he was succeeded by Robert Fico, a left-wing leader who had pledged to dismantle many of the reforms, rattling foreign investors. But Dzurinda told The Associated Press that, as the new government approaches four months in office, he has grown increasingly optimistic that Fico will leave in place the bulk of his pro-market policies. "I feel that the mainstream of reforms in Slovakia will be kept," Dzurinda said by telephone from Bratislava.
Fico came to power on promises to introduce new taxes on the rich, arguing that Dzurinda's economic reforms had hurt the poor, the unemployed and pensioners. The coalition that Fico's Smer-Socialist Democratic Party built also generated anxieties because it includes an ultranationalist group, the Slovak National Party, and former authoritarian Premier Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia.


Dzurinda, however, said he was relieved to see that so far, Fico was only making "cosmetic" changes to the reforms his government put through. "They do really very, very small changes," Dzurinda said. "I notice that they are evidently afraid to do something substantial because they understand that the Slovak economy is fantastically healthy." "So now I am more optimistic about reforms to Slovakia," he said. But Dzurinda said he also fears that the government will fail to tackle other reforms left unfinished — such as to the health and education systems.
"The good news is that the government is afraid to completely abolish our reforms, especially in the area of the economy," he said. "But the bad news is that the government is very populist and unable to ensure continuity of our policy." "The less he (Fico) does, the better for the country," he said. Slovakia has seen strong economic growth and a sharp fall in unemployment in recent years.

On RogerH's suggestion origina story here :)