Showing posts with label eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eurozone. Show all posts

Wages and buying power:gap between Austria and Slovakia/Czech/Poland shrinking

Until recently, Austria's neighbours in Central Europe were ahead by a nose with investors, especially because of the cheap wages paid in the East. However, that situation is changing rapidly. The wage and buying power gap between Eastern and Western Europe is getting smaller. This will have an effect on the competition for locations in Europe in the future.
This is the conclusion reached by a new study conducted by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies on behalf of the consulting company TPA Horwath. The study looked primarily at unit labour costs and buying power in ten countries in Central and Eastern Europe: in other words, what the state collects in each case, take-home pay for individual workers, and what you can actually buy for that amount in various neighbouring countries.

In the case of unit labour costs, the differences are still huge. Unit labour costs in Eastern Europe are below those in Austria. People also earn significantly less, although their wages are increasing, and the amount they have left over varies.

insurance company
bank

Well paid jobs at banks and insurance companies
In Austria, in 2010 average labour costs were EUR 3,966 a month. This put Austria streets ahead of Central and Eastern European countries included in the analysis. Slovenia, a model country in economic terms, has on average 44 per cent of Austrian labour costs. The earnings level in Austria here is 54 per cent higher than for the economy as a whole. Similar industry-specific differences can also be seen in Slovenia and Croatia. The earnings gap is considerably larger in all the other Eastern European countries studied: as much as 80 per cent in Poland and 143 per cent in Romania.
Net earnings: much smaller gap
However, a very different picture emerges in a comparison of average net earnings (gross wages after deduction of taxes and social security contributions) and real buying power – in other words, what people can buy with their incomes. Here it becomes apparent that the gap between Austria and the Eastern European countries is much smaller. For example, in 2010 the ratio of net earnings to so-called purchasing power parity in Slovenia was 63 per cent of the Austrian level (of EUR 1,800), followed by Croatia (59%) and the Czech Republic (58%). The level of net earnings was somewhat lower in Poland (53%), Slovakia (49%) and Hungary (42%).


wages

Convergence of wages
The analysts extrapolated current trends from these varying costs and deductions: unit labour costs are rising steadily in Eastern Europe. In fact, despite everything, in almost all the countries studied this is happening at a faster rate than in Austria. As a result, wages are slowly converging on those in Austria. At present, average labour costs are 44 per cent of the Austrian level. Growing competitiveness is driving this primarily because Central European countries are increasingly using modern “western” technologies. Furthermore, Central European countries are gradually developing a strong industry that is far more productive than small businesses.
Receptive to investors
Finally, despite relatively high tax and contribution ratios, the institute’s experts found a striking receptiveness to investors in Central and Eastern European countries. For example, at the height of the prolonged global economic crisis, taxation policy raised value added tax rates rather than taxes on work.


garbage collection
gardener


There are still very significant differences in the case of direct taxes (such as income and corporation tax), the experts at TPA Horwath in Vienna concluded. In Austria, in 2009 direct taxes accounted for around 30 per cent of total taxes, which was however still below the average for the EU 27. Hungary was next, fairly well below Austria with a rate of 25 per cent of direct taxes in total earnings, then Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic between 24 and 21 per cent. Direct taxes played the smallest role in Slovakia (around 19 per cent). Trend: during the crisis, Eastern European countries tended to increase value added tax, while lowering income and corporate tax. This was a definite advantage for investors.

What is the politics of Slovakia and the Euro as well as the eurozone/EU


Sovereign euro Risk of Slovakia according to the rating agencies

September 2011 Sovereign risk Currency risk Banking sector risk Political risk Economic structure risk Country risk

A BB A AA BBB A

Sovereign risk
Stable: The commitment to fiscal consolidation will remain strong, and debt levels should remain well below EU thresholds. 

Currency risk
Stable: Growing concerns regarding the solvency and competitiveness of some euro area members are potentially negative for the single currency. However, interest rate differentials should favour the euro in the short term.

Banking sector risk
Stable: Slovakia's banking sector is very conservative and very profitable but also very conservative in its asset allocation. The banking sector has been resilient to the aftermath of the global crisis of 2008-09. However, some foreign banks with branches in Slovakia could face distress because of the euro area crisis.

The Slovak capital Bratislava, the economic hub of the country


Political risk
The centre-right government looks less stable than its predecessor, but it is more investor-friendly. None of the parties likely to make it into parliament in a general election threatens Slovakia's international creditworthiness.

Economic structure risk
The economy's dependence on exports of automotives, machinery and electronics weighs heavily on the outlook for the economy, and could make medium-term growth more volatile.


Slovakia is led by a four-party, right-wing coalition, in which the largest party is the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union-Democratic Party (SDKU-DS the political party that brought about the 19% flat tax). The government has delivered pro-business changes that dilute workers' rights in the hope that will reduce the disincentives to hire people. This has dismayed many given widespread reform fatigue. Fiscal consolidation will be the main economic policy issue in the coming years.

The chances of the current coalition surviving until the election scheduled for 2014 are fair given that the overcast global environment does not favour major changes. But personal and programmatic clashes could bring it down before then. Real GDP growth is slowing in 2011 as the government is performing fiscal consolidation with a view to put aside funds in case there is a global crisis. Growth until 2015 will be slower than in the boom years but fairly fast in the chastened environment but at least this is not over levaraged unstable growth. Inflation is settling around 2.5% in 2012-15. The current account is expected to register deficits averaging around 3.4% in 2011-15.

Political outlook The centre-right ruling coalition turned one year old in July. Coalition parties have shown resilience despite frequent disputes. Disagreements between ruling parties could spill over in late 2011 when parliament debates the government's recent decision to sanction Slovakia's financial contribution to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) from 2013.

Economic policy outlook
Slovakia's fiscal consolidation effort has been progressing in line with plans in 2011. At end-July the state budget posted a deficit of €1.67bn (US$2.3bn), 30.4% smaller year on year.

Economic forecast
In June seasonally adjusted industrial output fell by 2.2% month on month. The economic sentiment indicator (ESI; 2005=100), which had moved lower in the second quarter, after climbing in the first quarter, edged down further in July, dropping by 1.6 points month on month, to 93.9. This reflected weaker confidence in the industrial sector, owing to weakening demand of trade partners in the EU.


Slovakia is a big beneficiary of the euro and will therefore stay in it forever

Richard Sulik who is mentioned here does not have the power to force his opinion, and anyway he only talking about a plan b should things take an unexpected turn such Germany leaving the euro itself. If one reads his comments in Slovak he is stating the obvious, if the euro's chief instigators ( Germany and France) throw in the towel and decide to give up on being parts of the biggest trading block in the world then Slovakia should prepare for it.

Journalists with not much to write should note that this hypothetical is firmly on pig flying territory. There is an anglosaxon assumption that the Euro and the EU are unecessary so the breaking of the euro is a matter of time back to the natural order of things... Additionally talking to british politicians one gets the impression that deep down they think that it was all a matter of a Helmut Kohl & Miterran love-in in the 1980s and that the future is bright for tiny countries with mercantilist policies. This thinking is ofcourse deluded and a product of lazy economic nationalism, self interest disguised as idealism, breathtaking arrogance, and a short termism that diplomatically has led Britain to now have the smallest influence in europe in its entire history. As the small print says in all that rubbish investment products sold in UK banks "past performance does not guarantee future returns". The world where the UK could exploit vast swathes of the world because of the primitiveness of the natives are over. The world is now more sophisticated and massive trading blocks are emerging, and you better be part of one of them. Slovakia's establishment has understood that and is integrating into the most viable scheme possible to address the globalising challenge. To put it in other words, even if the euro were to fail, it would be replaced by a successor!

Things would have to get massively worse for the euro to be a liability rather than an advantage for Slovakia.
For this small country this border/labour/monetary (and in the future possibly even fiscal) union with Germany is of strategic importance, as it is for other small fiscally conservative nations dotted around germany, such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Czech republic, and not least Austria. All these nations share common values and high Human Development Index as well as raw GDP performance.

Additionally under the EU, schengen, and euro umbrella, Slovakia has redressed the economic isolation that came about from the iron curtain and the nationalisms of the 30s and 40s. Membership of this Neo-Austrohungarian economic zone, Czechs, Austrians etc is powering the economy and integrating it in big infrastructure investments that will further entrench these ancient economic links.

Economic integration under the euro is not an ideology or due to romantic visions of internationalism, but because globalisation is making this a necessity. If there are countries that at some point reintroduce currencies, they will have lost in the challenge of the emerging competitors (China, India) and will face a deflationary path to irrelevance and further nationalism. One has to only look at states with independent currencies and with no european perspective. It reads like a list of basket-cases in europe that are going nowhere (Moldova, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine) So the answer to the article is probably that Slovakia would probably the least likely state to leave the Euro.

The real question also is why so much focus on the euro and so little attention is paid to the printing presses of the dollar?? That is far more newsworthy..

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Should Slovakia quit the euro?

December 13, 2010 4:02pm | 

Slovakia is the newest member of the euro, and as the common currency lurches from crisis to crisis, there seem to be increasing doubts in Bratislava as to the wisdom of accession. (actually the epicenter of the debate is why the club is bailing out wayward members that are richer than slovakia). 
The qualms come from Richard Sulik, the speaker of parliament and leader of the SaS party, a new grouping that is part of the centre-right governing coalition. In an article for the Hospdarske Noviny newspaper, Sulik denounces the policies that got Greece and Ireland into trouble, and looks fearfully at the potential threat facing Spain and Italy. In response, he says Slovakia should come up with a “Plan B” and contemplate reintroducing the koruna.
Sulik, a self-made millionaire who made his fortune in setting up a chain of copy shops, was a member of the team that helped create the Slovak economic miracle more than a decade ago by introducing flat taxes and slashing bureaucracy.
Finance minister Ivan Miklos, himself a key player in those reforms, has a different view: everything possible should be done to keep the euro strong.
Slovakia was initially thrilled to be spared the turmoil felt by its central European neighbours when the economic crisis hit the region. Flush Slovaks went cross-border shopping to Poland and Hungary in 2009 to spend their euros in countries where the national currency had plummeted in value. Foreign investors like Volkswagen were also pleased because they no longer faced currency risk in Slovakia, but still had access to much cheaper workers than in Germany.
However, Slovakia baulked at paying €800m ($1.1bn) to bail out Greece, and now faces the prospect of more demands as other peripheral eurozone countries fall into trouble.
“I think that it reflects a general frustration of the Slovak government,” says Lars Christensen, emerging markets analyst with Danske Bank. “The feeling is that when you join a club you should follow the rules, and not pay for the people who have broken the rules.”
Next door meanwhile, the Czech Republic, never an enormous euro enthusiast, has made it clear that it is in no rush to join the common currency.
“Nobody can force us into the euro,” Petr Necas, the prime minister, said recently, while Vaclav Klaus, the Eurosceptic president, has asked the government to work out if it can renege on the promise made to eventually adopt the euro when the Czech Republic joined the EU in 2004.