2011 predictions - how will the new year turn out?

Will the euro survive?
Yes. Despite the rolling wave of crises in peripheral European countries. It is probable that defaults will also be prevented in 2011. A less dramatic set of formal debt restructuring will happen in the PIIGSand Germany wants it to happen. As for a country leaving the Euro, that is more of 2012-13 question.

The euro will survive in the long run, and a north south divide may form, selecting countries that are able to live with Germany as direct trading partner and perhaps forming an ever closer union with it.

Will 2011 see banks fail?
2011 will be a year of bank runs in the anglosphere, banks in UK, Ireland, possibly Spain.

Will China’s bubble burst?
political risk may trigger a war involving north korea and poisoning the investments of many..

Will the US and its Nato allies start winning the war in Afghanistan?

Will social unrest worsen in Europe?

Most probably in the badly managed economies of the PIIGS. The utterly docile and passive public of the USA will continue to suffer silently a bit like an asian authoritarian regime, economic policy will stay the same, but the dangerous direction of US politics, with the Republicans continuing their transformation into a far right party, and the democrats continuing to be 2 parties in one. Europe's periphery may be smalshing lamposts but the rather silent rise of extreme politics in america with the tea party etc. will bring about surprising changes in the USA and not for the better,

The ongoing boom in germany will stabilise its neighbouring countries (including Slovakia), and bring about north/south divide in europe.

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