facts on budget deficits around europe

Corruption and Fico

Macko Ushko says:   :) Slovak spectator has a very interesting article about Robert Thicko complaining about attempts to corrupt him. Now i have to say i didn't expect this, i actually find it very encouraging that he personally is prepared to talk about it.

Of course the obvious thing many will say is why doesn't he turn the corrupters to the authorities. The answer is simple, corruption at this level works in a VERY careful way, the real corrupters would never have met or have anything to do with the nexus of people doing the approaching to Fico so it is not that simple. Had he tried to reveal who they were or tried he might have been found dead after all. There are huge stakes in things like that. I think its courageous that he warned them off.

There is a serious underworld in every country including Slovakia of course they mainly grew under Meciar but since they 1990es they are being in effect pressed to clean up by buying legitimate businesses and shutting up and stop being criminal, so the country can join the EU mainstream in this respect also. Its unfair of course because these are ill gotten gains, but this is the history of most societies' development, its better to have these dangerous people running a shop rather than running the government or killing people (see Bulgaria Ukraine etc etc).

This is actually good news, him talking about it publicly should be recognised as a positive, and clearly distinguish him from Meciar. Maybe the guy is a true nationalist, wanting to do good for Slovakia. He might be slightly misguided on economics (But so was Dzurinda, the transpetrol or airport privatisations were "stupid" ones). But overall the trend is good. Fico is not outright corrupt. He didn't come to government for the money, it was his silence on this matter so far and the Meciar factor was my main concern, this move by him is laudable and we should recognise a positive development when we see one. If he wanted to make big bucks and build vila electra v.2 then he wouldn't say what he just has, he would keep quiet on the issue..

This ofcourse doesn't mean that
1. the bastards in the regions are not very corrupt further down the food chain HZDS in particular
2. we should stop keeping an eye on him. He is a young man and as far as i know he is not rich so he might be tempted still...
3. His ministers like Dzurinda's are a completely dodgy lot, Harabin in particular, Pociatek and Jahnatek.

my conclusion: If the economy is not defaced, the corruption is kept lower than Dzurinda, Slovakia joins the Euro and the price for all this will be a little bit of Socialism, Meciar still in politics but powerless, and we have to hear some pointless thundering about the evil hungarians now and then with no consequence, then i raise my glass of orange juice to Fico. If he does these things then he is a true patriot and has a very good chance becoming a respectable political leader of the center-left and deservedly so, but only if he keeps the conditions above...

see story here http://www.slovakspectator.sk/clanok.asp?cl=25018

Now Slovak spectator can take this stupid graphic off

"Fico claims attempts have been made to corrupt him

PRIME Minister Robert Fico suggested that there have been attempts to corrupt him. However, he has never filed any charges in this respect.

During an October 30 conference of the employers association Klub 500, Fico said that “had I agreed at the very beginning with the proposed procedure in the case of [oil transportation company] Transpetrol [which Slovakia is trying to buy back from the bankrupt Yukos], neither I nor 15 of my generations to come would have ever had to work again”.

Fico’s spokeswoman Silvia Glendová told Sme that the PM did not turn to the police because “he could be filing charges from morning till the evening”.

Svetlana Husárová, a spokeswoman of the Slovak General Attorney’s Office noted, however, that “it is a civic duty of the prime minister to file a criminal announcement if he has any such information”.

According to Fico there is a system in Slovakia that produces large amounts of money that serve to enrich individuals and to finance political parties.

“This is a system that is able to produce billions of crowns, which really are classic dirty crowns,” he said.

[10/31/2006 10:33:19 AM]"

shamelessly ripped off from lemuel

shamelessly ripped off from lemuel
here is our hungarian eater
http://www.myheritage.com


Those early years at the Communist party paid off note the natural poise and apparchik smile similarity between Mikhail and Fico...

and after a special request from Roger

http://www.myheritage.com



hmmm

step by step how to create your election winning coalition

some interesting ideas by a Slovak PHD student in Denmark on the recipe for winning elections (i would say that this could have worked in any country with a electoral system favouring coalitions )

Another interesting piece is how the European Union is civilising the Thatcherite excesses of the UK's anti employee stance:
  1. Britain in the Social Chapter, giving British workers the rights already enjoyed by their continental colleagues.

  2. implemented EU wide laws on working time, limiting the length of time workers can be obliged by their employer to work to 48 hours per week.

  3. required, for the first time in Britain, a guaranteed right to paid holiday.

  4. brought in the European works council laws giving new rights to workers in transnational companies.

  5. introduced proper procedures for information & consultation of workers on all significant changes affecting companies with over 50 employees.

  6. reversed the burden of proof in discrimination cases, putting the onus on employers to prove that they do not discriminate.

  7. give both parents the right to time off when a child is born or adopted.

  8. brought in measures to give part time workers the same rights as full time workers as regards training, pensions, maternity rights and leave.

  9. improved the rights of temporary workers regarding pay and paid leave.

  10. brought in fines for airlines for deliberate overbooking as well as doubled cash compensation for stranded air passengers with the right to meals, refreshments and hotel accommodation if necessary while passengers wait.

work in flexible britain

Macko Ushko says:   :) For those neo-thatcherites
A friend was working in a very rich profitable company for 8 months, he was subjected to an 8month probationary period

this means:
  1. no holiday,
  2. no overtime pay,
  3. no paternity maternity leave-not sure about this one but i think so-,
  4. no compensation if fired
  5. in practice no proper lunches (overpriced sandwich over computer)
  6. as much as 50% of the salary was in the form of a discretionary bonus, i.e. they can withdraw it for no reason.
The guy put furious work, hardly had a life for 8 months pressured to work 12-13 hours a day and think about work problems at home at the rest of the time...

The day before his probationary period ended, he had a "review". His boss told him he was not getting the bonus (everyone in the firm got theirs). My friend said he thought this is unfair because they made him believe throughout that his bonus was secure, and the boss fired him on the spot. This is in a high finance firm and my friend is well educated, reasonable, and calm computer database expert.

Essentially the whole job was created in such a way to evade the pathetically weak employment laws in the UK give. Mislead the employee at the time of the interview about the job compensation. Outright crookery.. its not even because the employer had difficulties, they do it either for fun, racistically, or ideologically victimising others...

"Fair play..."
The bastards need to be taxed out of their wits... flexible workforce, yes very flexible workforce, very inflexibly greedy bastardly employers.

There are no unions in IT btw...

the sweeping generalisations of "the economist"


Here we go again. The Economist decided that all the world needs is a thatcher everywhere.

I will comment the article below and expose the weakness of some of the arguments. The picture in particular is offensive.


Here goes:
What France needs

Oct 26th 2006
From The Economist print edition
France is in a similar funk to Britain in the 1970s: a Madame Thatcher could restore its confidence

| Macko says : First of all France does not lack confidence. It is more open to change of government unlike Britain which is now replacing its parliamentary system with a president Blair. It is aping America in having an unstoppable president Blair/Brown who can deflect all questioning and accountability. Aping the US in its final decades as a superpower is not a good idea. |

THERE is a palpably sour mood in France these days. As Jacques Chirac enters the twilight months of his 11th and (surely) final year as president, he is the most unpopular occupant of the Elysée Palace in the fifth republic's history.

| Macko says : This is because Chirac is a bit of a farmer protectionist, and because the electorate wanted real change but when the election came along they had to choose between Le Pen and Chirac, So they were almost forced to keep Chirac for lack of a credible opponent. It is clear that there is a democratic demand for the social deal between employee and employer to be kept where it is |

The government of his prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, has been paralysed ever since street protests forced it to withdraw a modest labour-market reform in the spring. The French have invented a buzzword: declinism, summing up the belief that the country is unreformable.

| Macko says : Some French and not all french people invented this term, I travel to France and its the first time I ve heard this one. Maybe its heard where the Economist goes and meets industrialists and the like. It depends who you ask. |

France matters. It is the world's sixth-biggest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a declared nuclear power.

| Macko says : Correct, and what is more, its economy is not at all sickly. It has shown much resilience. Overall GDP is not a reliable guide for all kinds of comparisons. There are a lot of wrong conclusions one can reach by solely looking at GDP growth. For me GDP numbers should be accompanied by real wage rises y.o.y to show that the whole of society benefits from growth. Happiness surveys should also be a consideration. |

France was a founder of today's European Union, a driving force behind the creation of the single currency and—despite French voters' rejection of the draft EU constitution in May 2005—a longstanding promoter of deeper European integration. It is in part thanks to France's paralysis that the union is itself so uncertain of its direction. That is why Europe and the world are watching with close interest as the campaign for next spring's presidential election unfolds.

Our survey this week explains the gloomy background to that election. For ten years in a row, the economy has grown by less than the rich-country OECD average. The public finances are looking wobbly: public spending accounts for half of GDP, and in the past ten years the public debt has increased faster as a share of GDP in France than in any other EU-15 country. Above all, France suffers from stubbornly entrenched unemployment, which seems stuck at 8-10% overall, and over 20% for the young.

| Macko says : Unemployment figures are another area of lies and half-truths in comparisons between countries. Many fiddled figures are starting to really take the piss. In the UK for example where unemployment is rising, the unemployed are defined as "people who receive unemployment benefits". I can tell you that the system in the UK makes it SOOOO bureaucratic and difficult to get unemployment benefit that people don't bother (besides the amount is just enough to sustain life and has so many strings attached that it simply is not a useful stopgap until one finds the next job). Which of course then means that the jobless numbers are "creative accounting". Most common people's definition of unemployment is when somebody wants to get a half-decent job with normal hours and a fair deal between an employee and an employer and there are no such jobs on offer.

In practice when in a person in the UK loses their job and income they give in to the bombardment of
consumer loan advertising. This often puts their home at risk of repossession when they frequently lose their jobs and in many cases they can't get enough money to pay off the loans if their skills are not the latest trend... Deceptive advertising is purposely created to cheat people, smallprint with massively important clauses, legalese, its all crooked, and the government never intervenes when people get fleeced although it is continuous.

Result? Britain has and incredibly high rate of repossessions and personal bankruptcies. Many depressed people start borrowing and spending money unwisely on consumerist nonsense, but I suppose it keeps the economy going in the short term.

In reality its a system that has a predatory stance towards simple minded people that think bankers are respectable people and that a loan is a fast way out of trouble on a rainy day WRONG! In reality there is a massive number of people "hobbling" or in training, or forced into the army as the sole employer in their area. We live in a time that if you are a bit dim you can die from poverty...

France was chronic joblessness, as much as anything else, that lay behind the riots and car-burnings that exploded in the banlieues of Paris, heavily populated by disaffected Muslim youths, exactly a year ago. Today, these neighbourhoods remain tense: 21,000 vehicles were burned in the first six months of this year alone—twice as many as during the three weeks of rioting. A sense of exclusion lingers.

| Macko says : All this is true, but the Thatcherite UK has similar riots (Oldham for example) , which shows that the riots have a weak relation to unemployment and more to do with lack of integration.

It is true though that if one is not smart academically or in commerce these days there are no jobs for them, decent work has become a privilege of the few, and all the industrial jobs many of the parents of these youths were doing have vanished to china, or technology has made them redundant.

Once in the trashbin of society in estates that nobody wants to live in throughout Europe (these exist equally in the UK) these young mainly unintegrated Muslims lapse into a life of petty crime and riots.

It's not impossible

Yet France is a country of contradictions. Its economy may be sluggish, | Macko says : A I pointed out before, sluggish for who? most white french do get jobs, its mainly the hordes of the Algerian unemployables in the estates that nobody wants to employ. but its workers are among the world's most productive.

| Macko says : Yep that is because french education is so much better than the English equivalent. Also when one employs the uncouth of the suburbs productivity falls, any society with almost full employment is very inefficient but happier and more balanced. However if the government is in the pocket of the people selling the loans etc, they need some distress in order to sell their loans.

Its people are famously leery of globalisation and economic liberalism, yet France boasts some of the world's most successful multinational companies. Its public sector may be bloated and its tax burden excessive,

| Macko says : ... yes when the french age get decent pensions unlike the Brits who have so many cases of old people DYING because they cannot afford heating in the winter! but hey it doesn't matter at least we have some nice numbers to show in international comparisons.

yet the quality of its public officials is widely admired. Its mass-education universities come deservedly low in the world rankings, yet Paris's famous grandes écoles are among the best in the world.

| Macko says : British universities like the ex-polys are pathetic, the UK government is trying to get foreigners to pay for its universities through high fees, because many foreigners have the misconception that British universities are like Oxford or Cambridge... Nothing could be further from the truth. In reality the unis are crap but their funding is cut year after year, so in desperation UK universities go and engage in deceptive marketing in other countries to get fee paying students. They are bad value for money but it will take years for it to be known, this is also massively adding to an academic degree inflation, which means that a degree is worth less and less...
Without a masters of science these days its you cannot seriously compete (so the Bsc has been inflated away into nothing really)

In short, France is a place in which, for almost every weakness, it is possible to find a matching strength.

The question is whether France can now build on these strengths by bringing in pro-competitive reforms—to its labour market, to its protected utilities and public monopolies, to its social model,

| Macko says : No the real question is why some are constantly beating the drum to get the new UK and open other markets so we can get in and get market share with a lot of marketing and substandard products. The reason why UK has given up on manufacturing is largely because in the 80es UK cars, stereos are synonymous with jokes and anything manufacturing with some luxury exceptions was rubbish quality. Britain could not compete because of the ills in education that it had then as much as it has them now. Productivity is kept as high as a low 2% because of immigration not because it invests in its people.

to its public services and to its stifling regulatory system. There are reasons to be optimistic. Many of France's impressive businessmen are demanding change. | Macko says : yep like keeping things regulated to keep the Brits out. Even within the EU the countries have invented new ways to keep the professions closed to cross border competition. British companies would like to see privatisation Thatcher style so these new private monopolies get created that are in effect permanent cash cows to shareholders with as little investment as possible. The pathetic level of investment that has gone in the privatised monopolies in the UK e.g. Thames water, have caused the UK to have water shortages int he summer. WATER SHORTAGES in the rainiest country in the world!! if that is not an indictment of private ownership of utilities i don't know what is. Shareholders don't invest and they raise bills. One day these companies will start having operational issues because of the lack of investment and the public will demand this to be fixed so the government will have to buy these back from the shareholders in order to fix them, it happened with the railways and Railtrack, its a real eye opener, in contrast in france you have the TGV...

Thatcherism works only in some things, certainly NOT in natural monopolies. The economist needs to explain if it doesn't know theis or it pretends it doesn't know this...

he country's demographic outlook is healthier than its neighbours. Because it is less dependent on manufacturing than Germany, Italy and Spain, France has less to fear from low-cost Asian competition.

| Macko says : Oh well yes but like the rest of the EU its the immigrants that breed for cultural reasons coming from ultra conservative parts of the world.

Because everything has been privatised including education pensions utilities, and soon to be health (despite the disaster that is the private health in the USA) People save their cash and don't have children because the economic climate does not reward long term commitments in children or indeed in marriage. Paul Belin of the Brussels Journal notes, for example, that “Mohammed is the most popular name of new born males in Brussels, Rotterdam and other major European cities.” And no wonder, considering that:

“...Just consider the demographics. The number of Muslims in contemporary Europe is estimated to be 50 million. It is expected to double in 20 years. By 2025, one-third of all European children will be born to Muslim families.”

I predict more riots and islamic parties in government.

It will always be hard to get reforms past the gauntlet of France's street protesters. But at least the government is not hobbled by the scratchy coalition politics that bedevils all attempts at reform in Germany and Italy.

| Macko says : yep ideally martial law to get our "reforms" through but fuck the electorate, who cares what the masses want | Orwellian... If the people want a socialistic goverment its not because they are stupid. Its because some societies have made some conscious choices, that for example our welfare in our old age is more important than overpriced consumer gear when we are young, that good education and relatively low immigration might not make the profits of businesses zoom up but the interests of the country are higher than that.

And others have led the way. World-weary French commentators sometimes maintain that only smaller, more homogenous countries, such as Ireland, Finland, Denmark or the Netherlands can reform.

| Macko says : Denmark is not exactly thatcherite you know! have you heard of flexicurity? Britain has more in common with a robber baron unregulated flavour of capitalism practiced in Texas, Big cars, bibles, guns, and morons praying in mega churches with malls and multistorey parking built in.

But Spain has opened up its economy

| Macko says : Bad examples, Spain is riding a ridiculous property bubble, tourism has its limit, and i think this will come to and end, possibly in tears for many Brits that have exported ridiculous valuations on property to spain. This reversal is going to perhaps trigger a correction in spain too.

and Canada has restored its public finances.
| Macko says : Again canada is not a normal country like norway, saudi, you have a tiny population with abundant natural resources, its nice for them but its not a normal state.

And look across the channel: in the 1970s Britain was suffering from declinism too. Many said that the trade unions were too strong, that reform was impossible. After all, one prime minister, Edward Heath, had made a valiant attempt at change in 1970-72, only to be unseated by a miners' strike—rather as Alain Juppé's bold reforms in 1995-97 were overturned by street protests. And yet after 1979 Margaret Thatcher showed that a determined government could shake up a sclerotic economy (and defeat the miners). It was a matter of leadership, above all.

| Macko says : Thatcher created an unequal society and the pendulum is swinging in the opposite end so the correction will be to a state more like germany in the future, i would n't buy the FTSE from now on...

The choices in spring

The real issue is not whether France is reformable—for the answer must be yes. It is whether there is a Madame Thatcher who has the courage to take on vested interests.

| Macko says : ahem to replace them with new vested interests. I don't buy this rubbish about the shiny new era. The UK has bigger problems than france... Hospitals that decline using life saving drugs to save money, railways that look like a trip to pre-soviet russia. education that is appalling at many levels but has very good marketing. In many ways the UK is very much like Tony Blair, very good at presentation and smiles, but ultimately fake, much of its successes are debatable, and its failures hidden. It is less and less democratic, and more and more cruel a society (unless you are an animal then you are ok).

The prognosis is not encouraging. On the left, three candidates will contest the Socialist Party's presidential nomination on November 16th. Even the most moderate, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has signed up to an old-style socialist programme. Another, Laurent Fabius, has refashioned himself as a champion of the people against “hypercapitalism”. The front-runner and supposed moderniser, Ségolène Royal, has criticised the absurd rules on a 35-hour working week—but only for giving employers too much power over workers.

| Macko says : i would vote for any of them the UK needs regulation of the crooks that miss-sell pensions insurance loans and property..

On the right, Nicolas Sarkozy, the hyperactive interior minister, looks more promising. He preaches a “rupture” with past policies and an overhaul of the “social model”. Yet he was an interventionist finance minister with no apparent love for free markets, and has recently sounded softer on the need for radical reform.

| Macko says : It depends, i am sure right now there are plenty of background offers tocorrupt him into particular policies... After all all politicians have a price...

Unpromising material, but then France's dame or homme de fer does not need to be quite as ironclad as the former British prime minister. When Mrs (now Lady) Thatcher embarked on her mission to convert Britons to the joys of wealth creation, Leonid Brezhnev led the Soviet Union and many still dreamed of a socialist Utopia.

| Macko says : News for you, communism had some policies that the scandinavian counries have copied and the rest of europe should adopt. It leads to happier more balanced lives, and a more civil society. Life is all about trying to pick the best qualities of what is about, and learn from other peoples mistakes. Including that failed state across the atlantic that is losing all semblance of democracy and civility fast. A christian Iran with nuclear weapons.

By contrast, France's hostility towards capitalism may be skin-deep—kept alive chiefly because politicians like Mr Chirac pander to it instead of confronting the French public sector with the realities of a global economy in which its private sector flourishes.

| Macko says : The global economy needs global regulation, not least environmental. The time will come that the returns from foreign investment will be brought down to the levels in europe, regulated capitalism a bit more liberal than France, a lot more regulated than UK should be the aim. Most of the propaganda otherwise has corporate sponsors that would like a neo-feudal world with themselves as the barons. These powermad morons that have a perverted sense fulfilment through having power over others push us to wars and reduce our happiness

In Britain, where the private sector was much weaker, it took nearly two decades to turn around the economy.

| Macko says : AHA this gets juicy, i put it to you that the real reform of the British economy is minimal or very modest at best.
Most of the growth can be accounted for by

  1. as big a property bubble as Japan's
  2. Massive immigration especially to semi & unskilled jobs. These people act as deflators to the salaries but mainly pensions and other rights and negotiating position of the middle classes. The money is made by employers who get half rpice employees sleeping 7 to a room in London...
  3. american english becoming the language of the world
  4. the City
  5. running an unfair ultraliberal economy inside a freetrade zone attracting investment that rightfully belongs elsewhere
  6. the labour of brits is prostituted through no adequate minimum standards in redundancy, training, working hours, healthcare, free time
  7. north sea oil and gas, a boom in personal indebtedness in effect spending now the money we should be saving for our old age
It should be understood that the british have been pissing in the communal pool of the EU for 20 years. Plans are afoot to stop this tax dumping on others. This will start speeding up the rate of unemployment no matter how much the figures are fiddled. The pendulum is starting to swing backwards right now, especially now the babyboomers realise that much of the money of their pensions has been spent.

If the next French president can push through the reforms needed to restore the country's competitiveness, France could rebound far more quickly than the déclinologues assert.

| Macko says : its the uk that is going to go socialist when the failures listed above but mainly when the property bubble bursts...

there are no easy solutions! beware of people peddling them

Mikulas the EU Foreign Minister speculation is not confirmed

The more time passes the more I've come to appreciate his reign. Without him Slovakia would be heading in a weird direction compared to a very right-wing world. I think that despite him being a bit too liberal for my tastes, he did do some real legislative work and he did create real value for the Slovak republic. He should be more respected than he is.

This country needs to keep an eye on the backroom deals of government mostly, otherwise Slovakia is doing brilliantly. The next tasks are the absobsion of Roma and hungarians into society and the time when people don't feel the need to vote for an ethnic political party because there is no need.

Dzurinda recently was touted in diplomatic circles as an EU foreign minister. If it was really offered, then he could have gone for it, I am sure this ex-railway executive has the brains and is a master negotiator and a rather Machiavellian person. Overall though he seems to have Slovakia's best interest at heart. I squeaky clean Dzurinda (from a corruption perspective) would have been Slovakia's ideal leader, but i doubt such a person would be able to ever form a coalition in Slovakia, there are simply too many interests in government spending, but the situation is improving every year. Let us not forget that there is a lot of money sloshing about in politics throughout the world, with America being quite a corrupt place as well... I count lobbying as corruption btw, because errr that is what it is. I give you money so you do something for me..

anyway here is the item about Dzurinda going to Europe for high office:

"Former Slovak Prime Minister and SDKU leader, Mikulas Dzurinda, says he doesn't plan to leave for a job in Brussels. He responded to speculations that he could replace the senior EU representative for common foreign and security policy, Javier Solana. Dzurinda said that he didn’t get any offer for a function in Brussels. "What is written in foreign newspapers is an evidence that Slovakia has gained respect abroad. My priority is to remain SDKU chairman and lead the party to parliamentary elections," he said. However, he didn't rule out that in the future, he may be interested in the European institutions. The information that Dzurinda has some good prospects to replace Solana appeared last week via Austrian paper Kurier, which quoted diplomatic sources."

Lets stay on dispassionate economics

If you read some of the anglosaxon press these days, you would think that Stalin was elected in Poland, and the economy and society is in freefall. As we know, nothing could be further from the truth but for the sake of any westerners that would like to read more in depth stuff than press releases from propagandameisters (money doesn't do politics) here is some Austrian research:

First the table for those not so keen on too much text

Positive outlook:
• Bulgaria, with broadly based favourable impact from EU accession
• Romania, with focus on disinflation and EU accession
• Slovakia, with concerns on the impact of the fiscal easing
• Slovenia, positive on sustained high growth and adoption of the euro

Stable outlook:
• Czech Republic, with concerns related to the fiscal side
• Estonia, rapid growth, but adoption of euro may be postponed yet again
• Latvia, growing overheating pressures coupled with rising economic
imbalances
• Lithuania, strong growth, improved political situation
• Poland, on strong fundamentals, with political environment still generating
concerns

• Ukraine, economy stronger again, but gas price hikes loom and politics remain
complicated

Negative outlook:
• Hungary, on toughness of the fiscal consolidation programme and political
unrest, potentially undermining reform commitment


"CEE region
General framework and growth prospects

The general outlook for the region is po-
sitive for strong economic growth, in
spite of increasing vulnerabilities. Dyna-
mic domestic demand, with lively in-
vestment, is accompanied by encoura-
ging exports in the wake of strengthe-
ned European demand and generally
good competitiveness. We forecast ave-
rage regional growth of 6 % in 2006 and
5.4 % in 2007, with all countries show-
ing growth close to or above 4 %.
Hungary, which is now facing the short-
term costs of a long-awaited fiscal cor-
rection, represents the only exception.
Still, the political scene is emanating
rather mixed signals, while the repeated
phenomenon of risk re-pricing recorded
in the last few months shows that the
region, and a few countries in particular,
remain vulnerable to the sentiment on
international markets. "

other juicy bits

"...Poland prospects unclear and keeping the zloty
rather volatile. Strong investments and
exports are the main drivers of growth
Slovakia and in the Czech Republic as
well, while Slovenia, which has secure
EMU entry in 2007, is waiting for the
promised boost in terms of competitive
ness and FDI appeal. Buoyant growth,
accompanied by increasing risks for an
overheating of the economy, is con-
firmed in the three Baltic countries. In
all three states domestic demand conti
ues to play a strong role in explaining t
higher growth, with limited room for a
significant correction in the external b
ance so far. The short-term outlook is
negative only in Hungary, where growt
will obviously decline (consumption
growth will be negative in 2007), in the
wake of the recessionary impact of the
new (long-awaited) fiscal correction pl
and the new monetary policy condition
The political environment is adding
further concerns, with the centre-left
coalition at the heart of a scandal
having lost local elections and the oppo
sition repeatedly calling for early elec-
tions."

Interest rates and macroeconomics

"Hikes in rates are also expected in the Czech Re-
public and Slovakia; in both countries the
new political landscape, which is opening
the door to increasing populism, is gener-
ating concerns for the fiscal stance. In the
Czech Republic, a deteriorating fiscal po-
sition, combined with increasing infla-
tionary pressures and the negligible ap-
preciation of the Czech koruna prompted a
25bp rise at the end of September 2006,
to be followed by a further + 50 bp in
2007. The lingering political deadlock,
which threatens fiscal discipline, remains
the main issue to watch.

In Slovakia, with
inflation remaining the key obstacle to-
wards adopting the euro, the central bank
has already hiked rates by 175 bp since
the beginning of the year. We see poten-
tial scope for an additional 25 bp hike in
2006, most probably taking place in No-
vember or December. However, given the
current deceleration in oil prices and
lower than expected regulated price in-
creases, our forecast for 2007, which as-
sumed a further 50 bp rate hike in Q1, re-
mains conditional on the persistence of
strong growth in private consumption.
Concerns are related to the fiscal side, yet
we still believe the budget deficit criteri-
on can be achieved if appropriate correc-
tive measures are put in place.

A completely new macroeconomic policy
framework is now in place in Hungary.
Following the general elections, the re-
elected government has finally addressed
the messy fiscal position of the country,
and a new corrective programme has been
adopted, which has also been endorsed
by the EU Commission. With the plan al-
ready having an impact on inflation and
with international markets having largely
re-priced Hungarian risks, in view of the
fiscal stance and political distress, the
central bank has started hiking rates. The
prime rate of 6.25 % in June increased to
7.75 % by the end of September. We ex-
pect the tight monetary policy stance to
be continued in the future, as inflation
will stay high both due to the direct im-
pact of the fiscal corrective measures and
to some stickiness in prices thereafter. In
Slovenia, strong domestic demand, high
energy prices and the adoption of the eu-
ro are factors which suggest that inflation
may move upwards slightly. The central
bank has already responded by raising in-
terest rates by 25 basis points in August –
also with a view to maintaining the inter-
est rate differential to the ECB. The fiscal
policy remains cautious, calling for fur-
ther declines in the deficit. Inflation con-
vergence has been and continues to be
the main crucial issue for the three Baltic states"

Its nice to see that Slovakia shares the same "problem" as the baltic tigers
i.e. too fast growth prompting inflation to go up, lower prices in oil will help alot though...
The euro looks a certainty if Fico just keeps thing largely as they are...

Slovakia in detail
"Buoyant economic prospects sustained
mainly by domestic demand and recov-
ery in net exports. Despite the new gov-
ernment decision to increase the public
finance deficit, the Maastricht criteria
could still be met. Energy prices repre-
sent the riskiest factor for inflation de-
velopments, while the restrictive mone-
tary policy should partially contribute to
slowing down pressures on the demand

side. 2007 key interest rate hikes re-
main conditional on the persistence of
strong growth of private consumption,
wages and employment in H2 2006.
employment in H2 2006. Despite the
risks connected to inflation develop-
ments and relaxed fiscal stance, we still
reckon there is scope to meet all maas-
tricht criteria in time for euro adoption
as of 1.1.2009.

Forecasts for 2007
Economic growth is expected to peak in
2007, due to new production capacities
on the supply side (connected mainly to
automotive). On the demand side, net ex-
ports are expected (driven by increase
of export-oriented capacities) to be the
main driver, followed by private con-
sumption and investment.

Construction activity is still benefiting
from the investment boom, recording
15.4 % average yearly growth in the first
7 months of the year. Such growth is
mainly driven by new construction (both
in infrastructure and building construc-
tion). We expect a gradual slow-down of
the annual growth due to the higher base
last year as well as to the gradual decline
of investment activity. Despite this, con-
struction activity should still record dou-
ble-digit yearly growth.
Based on the labour force survey the un-
employment rate reached 9.85 % in August
– the lowest rate ever – recording a 1.03 %
annual decline. Seasonally adjusted unem-
ployment (UniBanka calculation) reached
10.30 % (1.07 % yoy decline). The unem-
ployment decline is still driven by new
jobs, reflecting strong economic growth.
However, long-term unemployment re-
mains the key problem – it is the highest
among EU countries, while unemployment
adjusted for the long-term unemployed
(over 2 years) is already lower than the

EU-15 level. Altogether, we see only limit-
ed scope for further decreases in the un-
employment rate (despite the expected
strong economic growth). Following this
year’s forecast of 10.7 %, we forecast a
10.5% (yearly average) figure in 2008.
Income and wages
The average monthly wage reached SKK
18,324 (EUR 486) in Q2, recording 8.8 %
yoy growth. Real wage growth accelerat-
ed to 4.0 % in Q2, versus 2.7 % in Q1 (de-
spite the registered hike in inflation).
Public administration, education and
trade were the drivers behind such wage
growth. On the other side, construction,
the energy sector and agriculture record-
ed the lowest yearly growth. We expect
2006 real wage growth to be 3.2 % yoy.

Monetary policy
The central bank increased key interest
rates by 75 bps in Q3 (first by 50 bps in
July and then an additional 25 bps in Sep-
tember). Together with the other hikes in
H1, the 2-week repo rate went up by an
overall 175 bps. The reasons for such
tightening of monetary conditions remain
the same as in H1 – inflation risks. The
central bank specifically mentioned ex-
pected regulated price hikes as well as
the still relatively high private consump-
tion (driven by employment and wage
growth and increasing household indebt-
edness) as main factors. "

All your "reforms" are belong to us !

Macko Ushko says:   :) macko says ---> OK This below is one of those articles i 've been rather annoyed about of late. What I will do is replace the euphemisms contained below and remove the hypocrisy. Its just a personal opinion but I think on the whole there is something to it and I am at least partially correct:


Danger and Opportunity in Eastern Europe

--- macko says ---> for who? for the countries themselves or for US interests? <---

by F. Stephen Larrabee

--- macko says ---> FULL DISCLOSURE he is Senior Political Scientist at RAND Expertise:NATO, Eastern Europe, Turkey, Russia
Has taught at Columbia, Cornell, New York, Georgetown University and the University of Southern California. Before joining RAND. served the U.S. National Security Council in the White House, as a specialist on Soviet-East European affairs.<---

From Foreign Affairs RAND, November/December 2006

--- macko says ---> The RAND Corporation = nonprofit policy think tank first formed to offer research and analysis to the US armed forces. The organization has since expanded to working with other governments and commercial organizations.

RAND has approximately 1600 employees. RAND was set up in 1946 by the United States Army Air Forces as Project RAND, under contract to the Douglas Aircraft Company.

Mission
RAND was incorporated as a non-profit organization to "further promote scientific, educational, and charitable purposes, all for the public welfare and security of the United States of America." Its self-declared mission is "to help improve policy and decision making through research and analysis", using its "core values of quality and objectivity."

"about one-half of RAND's research involves US national security issues."

Criticisms of RAND

The RAND Corporation has been associated with militarism and the military-industrial complex by some. Many of the events in which RAND plays a part are based on assumptions which are hard to verify because of the lack of detail on RAND's highly classified work for defense and intelligence agencies. Some RAND participants who have gone on to large roles in the military-industrial complex are often believed to have had a role in shaping RAND research.
<---

Article starts: Summary: The recent emergence of nationalist and populist forces in eastern Europe, coupled with the rise of Russia, now threatens to derail efforts toward further EU integration, weaken NATO, erode the continent's stability, and damage U.S. interests

--- macko says ---> AHA! here is the point of the whole article <---

. Washington must ensure that the region's new politics do not damage the European project, for a strong and cohesive EU is in everyone's interest.

--- macko says ---> I wonder what he means by cohesive ... <---

A STEP TO THE RIGHT Eastern Europe is undergoing important changes that could erode Europe's security and damage U.S. interests.

--- macko says ---> second mention... <---

The enlargement of both NATO and the European Union was supposed to consolidate political and economic reform in the region

--- macko says ---> reform? again these terms are vague, Economic reform and market economies are in operation in all new EU member states so what other reforms? <---

and aid its integration with the West. The recent rise of nationalist and populist forces in several countries in eastern Europe, however, threatens to undermine the reform process. Enlargement fatigue in the EU and growing calls for protectionism within western Europe could further hinder continued efforts to create a single European market and fully integrate the new EU members. At the same time, the balance of power is shifting on eastern Europe's outer periphery. The collapse of the "Orange coalition" (the group of political leaders who led the 2004 Orange Revolution) in Ukraine

--- macko says ---> due to public disenchantment <---

has brought to power a government much less open to reform

--- macko says ---> of course Ukraine is not EU so again these cryptic reforms appear here too <---

or eager for close ties to the West. This is likely not only to slow Ukraine's integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions but also to have a dampening effect on reform within the other former Soviet states. In addition, after a decade of weakness and passivity, Russia has reemerged as an important regional and international actor, especially in the energy field.

--- macko says ---> Not surprising, after US assertiveness lead to the loss of all the satellites worth having, this is hardly surprising. Russia is energy rich and it is using it to largely influence or blackmail its neighbours to insulate themselves from the US. Russia's energy is Russia's property and i cannot see what any other state can do if putin uses it in diplomacy<---

These changes have gone largely unnoticed by policymakers in Washington despite the important implications they have for U.S. interests.

--- macko says ---> What exactly are these interests? they sound pretty ominous <---

The United States has invested considerable energy and resources over the last several decades promoting a Europe whole and free that could act as a strong, cohesive partner and help the United States manage security threats emanating from beyond Europe's borders. If eastern Europe reverts to old patterns of nationalism and parochialism and the process of European integration falters, much of this investment will have been squandered.

--- macko says ---> its nice to know they see us as a wall to protect themselves with... <---

REFORM FATIGUE In general, the last decade was a period of economic growth and increasing prosperity in eastern Europe.

--- macko says ---> Still is growth in Slovakia is speeding up! <---

But the tide of liberal economic reform has recently turned. Pro-Europe and pro-market parties have lost ground throughout the region and have been replaced in several countries by coalitions championing nationalism and populism.

--- macko says ---> I slovakia's case pursuing left off centre politics, so what's the problem? <---

Poland provides the most striking example of this trend, which began there with the victory of the conservative party Law and Justice (known by its Polish acronym, PiS), headed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, in the September 2005 parliamentary elections. The PiS consolidated its electoral success by winning the presidential election a few weeks later, when Lech Kaczynski, Jaroslaw's twin brother, unexpectedly triumphed over Donald Tusk of the pro-market-reform and pro-Europe Civic Platform. The Kaczynski brothers are suspicious of free-market reforms and favor a strong role for the state in the national economy and in other areas such as education and the media. In foreign policy, the PiS seeks to enhance "Polish national interests," which has led to conflicts with the EU and some of Poland's neighbors, particularly Germany. Domestically, the PiS' positions on many social issues, such as gay rights, are at odds with the positions of many western European states and are a source of further tension. This rightward drift in Polish politics has been . . .

--- macko says ---> unfortunately i dont have more, but i hope you see what i mean
the tone is kind of sinister, as if the democratic choices are "not correct"... it reminds me the kind of godfather mutterings about making somebody "an offer he cannot refuse"...
it might be just me... i just don;t like these guys they give me the creeps, they constantly talk about their interests...

is it all in my head? or are these guys going to write one of these days that the WMDs are now being built in Nitra, and the Fico is in the axis of haluski?

hmmm original article here


--- macko says ---> These pentagon/state dept. types see Putin as the bringer of a new cold war, and themselves as saviours. In fact they are contributing to such a development in equal measure whether they dont know it, or doing so knowingly. After all without a new cold war, the US could hardly justify its massive military budget, and when you have standing armies... well you are much more likely to use them, not least to keep them battleworthy. Unfortunately these kind of ideologues dominate the american establishment and will do so for the forseeable future because they represent US intellectual decline in government. Bush's moronic dictum "you are either with us or with the enemy" sums it up as a template. No president of Russia is eternal, and personality matters. Prolonged monetising (ie turning into cash) and double standards US military/economic superiority and policy respectively brought much of the resentment that US now faces in Russia. The problem with the Americans in all strata is their unrelenting greed (aka enterpreneurialism). And during yeltsin era their diplomatic efforts were a bit like a fat kid that had broken into a sweetshop, stealing the candy and stuffing their face and pockets as fast as possible. That inevitably irritated russia in a resurgent nationalism statism that Putin represents, lets not forget that Putin was picked by pro-US Yeltsin, maybe at a time when perhaps the latter became disenchanted with the aggressiveness and insensitivity of the US in the region.

Its really annoying because the last thing we need is a new cold war with the borders moved a bit to east. The US is almost giving nationalists around the world all the arguments they need to convince their compatriots that they should guard themselves against the US and or get nuclear weapons ASAP. I frankly am not surprised, especially when the incumbent of the white house has conversations with GOD..

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0630-04.htm


Where is a Helmut Kohl these days, leadership is lacking in west europe.


here is a more balanced one


The Backlash Against Democracy Promotion
Thomas Carothers

From Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006

Article preview: first 500 of 4,736 words total.


Summary: Authoritarian leaders around the world have recently started to crack down on democracy-promotion efforts in their countries. The Bush administration's pro-democracy bombast has not helped matters, but has contributed to the false idea that liberalization is somehow a U.S.-driven phenomenon.

Thomas Carothers is Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His most recent book is Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: In Search of Knowledge.

THE AUTOCRATS PUSH BACK

In January, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law a controversial new bill imposing heightened controls on local and foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operating in the country. The new legislation, which requires all NGOs in Russia to inform the government in advance about every project they intend to conduct, is another marker of the country's dispiriting slide back toward authoritarianism.

The law is also a sign of an equally disturbing and much broader trend. After two decades of the steady expansion of democracy-building programs around the world, a growing number of governments are starting to crack down on such activities within their borders. Strongmen -- some of them elected officials -- have begun to publicly denounce Western democracy assistance as illegitimate political meddling. They have started expelling or harassing Western NGOs and prohibiting local groups from taking foreign funds -- or have started punishing them for doing so. This growing backlash has yet to coalesce into a formal or organized movement. But its proponents are clearly learning from and feeding off of one another.

The recent "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan and the widespread suspicion that U.S. groups such as the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the International Republican Institute (IRI), Freedom House, and the Open Society Institute played a key behind-the-scenes role in fomenting these upheavals have clearly helped trigger the backlash. Politicians from China to Zimbabwe have publicly cited concerns about such events spreading to their own shores as justification for new restrictions on Western aid to NGOs and opposition groups. Yet there is something broader at work than just a fear of orange (Ukraine's revolution came to be known as the Orange Revolution). The way that President George W. Bush is making democracy promotion a central theme of his foreign policy has clearly contributed to the unease such efforts (and the idea of democracy promotion itself) are creating around the world. Some autocratic governments have won substantial public sympathy by arguing that opposition to Western democracy promotion is resistance not to democracy itself, but to American interventionism. Moreover, the damage that the Bush administration has done to the global image of the United States as a symbol of democracy and human rights by repeatedly violating the rule of law at home and abroad has further weakened the legitimacy of the democracy-promotion cause.

Just as the sources of the backlash have been multilayered, so too must be the response. To remain as effective in the next decade as they have been in the last, groups that promote democracy must come to grips with how the international context for their work has changed. This will mean rethinking some of their methods. The Bush administration, meanwhile, must also face some unpleasant realities, specifically about how the president's "freedom agenda" is perceived around the world, and must engage seriously an effort to build credibility for its democracy endeavor.



<---

Slovak Catholics Fight Against Mormons' Influence (I thought the GW Bush visit was over)

Macko Ushko says:   :) Taliban Roman Catholics are fighting efforts by the Moron church to earn official recognition as a religious group in Slovakia.

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia (AP) - Taliban Roman Catholic leaders are fighting efforts by the Moron church to earn official recognition as a religious group in Slovakia.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Morons is urging Slovaks "who care about religious liberty, to support us so we can make money like all americans -religious or not- want to do all the time to the exclusion of any other human mental function or activity as to them clearly everything is about money and that defines one's existence". The morons want Slovaks to sign a petition that would allow their business denomination to be officially recognized. Slovak law requires 20,000 signatures for a church to be registered.

But the Catholic Taliban bishops are telling parishioners that signing the document would "betray" Catholicism (ruin our nice cosy shop we have here since Cyril and Methodius). The Taliban bishops said in a statement that Moron doctrine "is not in line with the doctrine of the Catholic Church. Piss off we were here first"

"We call on all Catholics ... not to sign this petition," the bishops said.

The Moron church said Monday that it was not seeking to convert Catholics. "We just want to profit from your moronically inclined citizens respect the decision of every citizen, and the petition was in no way meant to convert anybody to our faith," Moron spokesman Petr Valnicek said. We just want to be in Slovakia and hang around not converting anybody at all, we just come all the way from Utah for a laugh, we just like the winter here. "cash & profits Religious liberty is all we had in mind. Donations are however very welcome we accept VISA, Mastercard and AMEX, call now and get your free gift of a tasteful plastic reproduction of jesus playing the banjo.

About the Church of Morons

The Moron church, based in the U.S. state of Utah in the south of the USA where all manner of CRAP emanates from (polygamy, people sleeping with their daughters, Ku Klux Klan, burning crosses, persecuting blacks etc ) along with neighbouring texas (GWBush is the most famous texan that alone says a lot etc), has a worldwide membership of more than 12 million morons, according to its Web site. But there are only about 100 Morons in Slovakia, and just under 2,000 in the neighboring Czech Republic.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Morons believes authentic Christianity vanished a century after Christ, and was restored only through founding Mormon Prophet Joseph Smith Jr. in 19th-century America. They also believe that jesus needs cash urgently so CALL NOW!! and have you credit card ready!


Touch your LCD Panel and you'll be healed!

Macko Usko is an atheist bear, religion is the opium of the masses. The Original (unaltered :) ) article is here

Related reading: Moroni the prophet More on the Morons

Disclaimer: Any typos or similarity with organisations and faiths is purely intentional as believing in mambo jumbo is silly and opens one up to ridicule at best and exploitation by bastards like the Church of latter day Saints (AKA Mormons) at worst.

ING bank analysis on Slovakia and why the real issue is corruption

Macko Ushko says:   :) There's a lot of very negative anglosaxon press on Slovakia, to a certain extent I think the fact that some US, UK and other foreign businesses disliked the fact that they lost influence with Dzurinda going. Much of the corporate owned press is continuously lumping stable Slovakia with unstable Hungary that runs a crazy deficit, and bizarre Poland.

So lets deal with each of the issues:

WHAT IS GOING WELL
--------------------------------------------------------
Economy & EURO
ING bank analysis on Slovakia
  1. Budget proposal represents a credible fiscal path towards meeting Maastricht criterions

  2. ING sees 2009 euro adoption probability at 65% from 40-45% previously

  3. Our expected scenario thus changes to euro adoption already in 2009 (macko says same time as Estonia! i.e. before Czech and along the virtuous club of new nations in the baltic and just after trailblazer Slovenia)

  4. We raise our EUR/SKK forecast to 36.2 by end-2007, though we regard this as conservative due to the still high uncertainty on euro adoption

  5. MinFin assumes an unchanged 36/EUR conversion rate

  6. CPI (Inflation) at 4.6% lower than expected, but underlying pressures unchanged

  7. Foreign trade worse than expected on imports
ING bank analysis here

The overall pro-market stance of Slovakia is safe unlike what particularly American press would have you think! for examples of overly pessimistic articles on Slovakia see: here & here


What is good in Politics & and why "Ethnic Tensions" are massively overplayed

  1. There is no doubt that 9%+ of Slovak population are ethnic hungarian. These people are chiefly represented by the SMK party which was part of the former government for 8 years, and enjoy protection afforded to them by both the constitution but also by the council of Europe (Slovakia is a member). Hopefully the tensions will subside given the european integration that renders most borders irrelevant. Lets hope so.

  2. Within the context of a post communist state and compared to what is going on in Poland and Hungary. Slovakia is a stable and increasingly prosperous country with a maturing political class and debate (Slota is the main fly in the ointment).

  3. Slovakia's democracy does have some refreshing attributes in the fact that changes & unexpected things can happen at all! If you compare it with Blair's Britain, where you have Gordon Brown almost literally SUCKING ASS (pardon my french) in the City of London and basically promising to the bankers that the next labour government is going to be EVEN more right wing, then, well its the time when all shame has ceased to exist and that we should recognise that the UK has transformed into a USA-style political system, where there are two right wing parties of government + some right wing extremists to pick from (electoral market failure).

    Slovakia still has genuine choices and the a livelier debate, even if that allows some awful characters like Meciar and Slota to show up in the political spectrum. Don't forget that there are versions of these phenomena even in the UK, (UKIP, Vanitas, BNP) with increasing electoral clout.

  4. If you think what the content of Fico's pre-election speeches contained, breathing a huge sigh of relief is in order..



WHAT IS NOT GOING WELL
--------------------------------------------------------

  1. Walking jokes like Stefan Harabin that are wounding the state of justice and the image of Slovakia... Why are heart attacks happenning to the wrong people...

  2. Cancerous growths like Vlado the Corrupt Dinosaur participating in government, and being legitimised by doing so. KDH is right to pursue him.

  3. Corruption and lessening institutional independence reflecting the control freakery of the new PM, the independence of state institutions is being undermined by Robert Fico by stuffing governmental organisations with his people (not exactly a rare phenomenon even in advanced democracies however).

    NOTE: Independence for institutions was not purely a Dzurinda instinct, it was Ivan Miklos (the ex-finance minister and the real author of the growth Slovakia is experiencing) that devolved power. I lament the loss of independent technocrats in organisations under Fico, i like technocrats running the economy. On the other hand elections ought to vote in responsible and capable people enough for it to be unnecessary to create independent institutions to protect us from the morons we elect... (btw top marks to Roger for the C. Dion pun :) in this link).

  4. Lack of good managers of government business. In government in most cases its not ill-will that causes disasters, but managerial incompetence of most elected representatives. This poverty of capable people versed in politics or the professions is very visible in SMER. To illustrate this Fico was even forced to get the excellent Jan Kubis (who is not SMER member neither will he join) because he simply did not have a credible foreign minister within SMER.

    Jan Pociatek at the finance ministry is ahem well the guy looks 16 years old, he has an economics degree but... well i don't want to talk ill of him, he at least seems to want to apply economic theory and listen to technocrat advice so he heeds the rule "first do no harm".

    Overall however I fear that Fico deliberately got lightweights like Pociatek in Finance and -old plastics executive from Nitra(??)- In economy ministry. This could be either because they are pliable so these offices can be abused for corruption, or because Fico wants to really run these ministries himself for reasons of egotism and narcissism or corruption. In this context non-corrupt Narcissism is the best we can hope for...

  5. I suspect that also this institutional independence thing creates a democratic deficit, if elections cannot change the bank governor and most of the key political decisions, then you have to ask why hold elections... I know these are luxuries in Slovakia at the moment but this is exactly why people don't bother to vote in many societies that the government is not basically able to change much. Its good for the economy and business... but once our votes cannot change things, we are tacitly agreeing that voters cannot be trusted with important decisions which is really a cynical view on the electorate. The problem is that it is also at least partially true... :)

  6. Fico, Slota & Meciar need to be watched on corruption, Meciar's Lexa, and EU funds allocation, that is where i suspect the biggest drawbacks of Fico's administration lie. I don't think a bit of moderate Social Democracy is going to be bad for Slovakia, in fact i think it needs it for 5 years. Its the corruption that sets an upper limit on growth and prosperity. Although Fico himself is an unknown quantity in this sphere, Meciar and Slota are notorious. There are 440 BILLION SKK coming Slovakia's way up to 2011. The wise utilisation of this money will determine if Slovakia will be the Ireland of the east.

  7. The people that backed Fico are the same greedy businessmen that backed Meciar for a while in the past! They don't much like competition... I think the auditors of the EU investigating how EU funds are spent in Slovakia, should send their best people and keep a very close eye on the EU purse in Slovakia.

  8. This is really where the focus of the media should be... But unfortunately crap like hungarian/slovak relations are what is in the news... This needs to change, a program on TV called corruptionwatch would be a good idea..

Conclusion
I am -reluctantly- prepared to tolerate the nationalism of this (secretly) mildly anti-gypsy government etc... given that the alternative of unbalanced and one-sided political direction for the country would have been worse and not broadly reflect the democratic will of the people.

Lets keep an eye on the corruption levels and Justice, not the fireworks of Slota and pseudo-crises with Hungary that act as distractions from the key issues and give the corrupt the opportunity to act.


Correction:

Recently i included information that was not correct on the situation of slovak & hungarian teaching in Slovak schools. Below is the status in full from an EU website which seems fairly non-partisan.

EU take on minority language education in slovakia

Feeling more EUropean

Europa
I am very pleased about the development below, One increasingly sees it if they -like me- travel often on those cheap flights. You see all sorts of interesting people that work and play around Europe. I think as an aging continent the EU has politics dominated by the older generations brought up under rather nationalistic times. The young have a more regional outlook. Its news like that that make me hopeful about the future, because this will start filtering through to politics.

---------

Feeling of 'Europeanness' on the rise, study says
23.10.2006 - 09:28 CET | By Mark Beunderman

Despite gloomy analyses over the EU's failure to connect to its citizens, Europe's younger generations are increasingly feeling "European" next to their national identities, according to a new study.

In an article in the journal Science, published last Friday (20 October), a team of Austrian sociologists found that older generations of citizens who only feel attachment to their nation – not to "Europe" - are dying out.

The sociologists studied the European Commission's Eurobarometer studies from 1996 to 2004, which contain the question whether respondents feel, for example, only Italian; Italian and European; European and Italian; or only European.

The answers of all respondents who said they had at least a partial sense of "Europeanness" where grouped under the heading of "multiple identities" – and revealed that this group is on the rise while those who feel they only have a national identity are on the decline.

In 2004, 58 percent of those surveyed had some sense of feeling European, a number which is set to rise to 68.5 percent by 2030 if the current trend continues, according to the study.

Media and student exchanges
"We show that the younger generations ... of Europeans are more likely to have a European identity in addition to their national one. And since the younger citizens will eventually replace the older, more nationally-oriented ones, the European demos will likely change accordingly," the authors say in a statement.

The sociologists said that the Europeanisation trend has a number of causes, including "expanding media impact coming from and reporting about the European level, the increasing free movement of people across European borders either for tourism or work, the increasing number of students in university exchange programmes as well as the fast-growing day-to-day communication across borders."

But they emphasized that the inclination to feel more European does not come at the expense of national identity.

"Contrary to common belief, the development of a European identity does not have to be accompanied by the decline of a national identity," they said.

Partial picture
But the results of the Austrian study may not boost the cause of the European Commission and MEPs who are seeking to re-connect to citizens, as the study only covers the period up until 2004.

After that year, the union saw two failed referenda on the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands as well as increasing public hostility to further enlargement of the union.

Perhaps more importantly, the study presents only a partial picture as it only covers the "old" EU of 15 member states before enlargement in May 2004.

Within the EU-15, Luxembourgers were the most "European," with a 78 percent average between 1996-2004 admitting they felt at least a partial sense of European identity.

Italians came second at 72 percent, followed by the French (68%) and the Spanish (64%) while at the other end of the scale Swedes (45%), Finns (43%) and Britons (40%) felt less European.

link: http://euobserver.com/9/22701/?print=1

The best balance for Slovakia is:



BUT neither should it be further to the right!

Statement from before the term liberal had become an insult.

this is from Lewis Lapham one of the dying breed of better human beings than our generation with compassion interesting and contrarian views that unmask the propagandistic ways and low quality of US journalism at the moment.

This is an elegant short below, dont miss the synonymous documentary

=---
STATEMENT FROM LEWIS LAPHAM
Subsequent to the events of September 11th, 2001, I don't know of any topic as relevant to the predicament in which the country now finds itself than the composition of the American leadership class. The headlines every morning speak to the rising surge of violence in the world, much of the anger directed at the United States, and on what ethical ground do we defend our American freedom and prosperity? Nobody disputes the fact of our military predominance, but with what moral and intellectual force do we confront the hostility of people who don't see much of a difference between the prospect of death by starvation, gunfire, or disease?
The questions bear on the character of the American elites, and the film examines the ways in which we establish those elites. What do we expect our leaders to know? What values do we require them to hold? Of whom does the American leadership class consist; where does it find its philosophy, and how does it differ from its Asian and European counterparts? Define the American directorate as the few hundred thousand people who manage the government, coin the money, write the laws, administer the schools, own and operate the news media, and how do we know them when we see them? From whence do they come, and to whom or to what do they owe their positions of authority?
The documentary proceeds from the premise that no society can exist without some form of social hierarchy. The Roman Empire rested on a class system; so did medieval France and Victorian England. So does the United States—in 2005 as in 1805 and 1905. But being American, and therefore sworn at birth to the doctrine of egalitarianism, we don't like to concede the existence of our own class system. We meet it every day in the street, but we pretend it isn't there. The word, class, comes armed with so much ambivalence and so many contradictions that its meaning shifts with the social setting and the tone of voice, with the height of the ceiling, the names of the other people on the guest list, the view (or lack thereof) of the mountains or the sea. Our political rhetoric dwells on what must be done for the democratic many; the vocabulary of our commercial advertising dwells on what can be made available to the privileged few. Once having proclaimed our loyalty to the idea that all men are created equal, we do everything possible to prove ourselves unequal.
Absent a landed aristocracy that bestows entitlements at birth, a nominally democratic society must assemble its ruling elites from whatever egalitarian materials come most meritocratically to hand. Being an inventive and productive people, we manufacture our leaders in the same way that we build expensive automobiles and exclusive resort hotels. The documentary. We could as easily have made an industrial film about the composition of computer circuits.
During the years since the declaration of our war on terrorism, a good many people not only in the United States but everywhere else in the world have raised questions about the character and motives of the American Colossus. Do we hope to retain the republic that Benjamin Franklin knew would be hard to keep, or do we wish to invest ourselves with the mantle of an empire? How high a price do we set on the head of freedom? If we delete another few paragraphs from the Bill of Rights, what do we ask of the government in return for our silence in court? If we define our American democracy as a res publica, of what does the res publica consist?
Given the magnitude of the American presence in the world, the questions seem to me timely; they're likely to shape the course of events, both at home and abroad, during the first quarter of the new century, and from whom else do we expect answers if not from the American leadership class?

Things are going better

TWO key votes for the ruling partners of Smer – the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) and Slovak National Party (SNS) – failed to pass yesterday.

The parliament, in which a majority of MPs belong to the ruling coalition, failed to elect a new chairman of the National Memory Institute (ÚPN) although it was expected that the SNS candidate, lawyer Adrián Kucek, would succeed.

In the votes on 15 candidates for the post of Constitutional Court, current Justice Minister Štefan Harabin, who was nominated by HZDS leader Vladimír Mečiar, also did not receive enough votes to be elected.

Both votes were held in the form of secret ballots and both will be repeated today.

In the new vote on the ÚPN director, Kucek will face the second most successful candidate from the first round, Ladislav Bukvszký, who is currently working as the head of the ÚPN archives.

In yesterday’s elections for Constitutional Court judges, eight of the planned 15 candidates were elected. The remaining seven should be elected today. Those elected include current Constitutional Court justices Ľudmila Gajdošíková and Lajos Mészáros, Supreme Court justices Peter Brňák and Sergej Kohut, current Constitutional Court advisors Alexander Fuchs and Ladislav Orosz, lawyer Marianna Mochnáčová and university teacher Peter Vojčík.

[10/20/2006 2:59:37 PM]

http://www.slovakspectator.sk/clanok_tlac.asp?cl=24923&rub=

Dzurinda says Fico is not going to change Slovakia's direction


I think this is the second time former PM Mikulas Dzurinda goes on the record to show that Slovakia should not be lumped in with other CEE countries. The country is largely disciplined and its behaving more like Estonia and Slovenia rather than Poland or Hungary.


If true, then i think that is the best outcome, a denmark like social protection with pro business policies to pay for it but not at the expense of employee welfare. This ought to be a civilised country's credo, and i would dearly like to see Slovakia go in that direction.


From the interview of Dzurinda to the Associated Press:


Former Slovak Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda expressed optimism Wednesday that the economic reforms he pushed will largely survive under the leftist-led bloc that ousted him this summer. In eight years as prime minister, Dzurinda oversaw the introduction of a flat tax and other pro-market reforms that made Slovakia popular with foreign investors. This summer, he was succeeded by Robert Fico, a left-wing leader who had pledged to dismantle many of the reforms, rattling foreign investors. But Dzurinda told The Associated Press that, as the new government approaches four months in office, he has grown increasingly optimistic that Fico will leave in place the bulk of his pro-market policies. "I feel that the mainstream of reforms in Slovakia will be kept," Dzurinda said by telephone from Bratislava.
Fico came to power on promises to introduce new taxes on the rich, arguing that Dzurinda's economic reforms had hurt the poor, the unemployed and pensioners. The coalition that Fico's Smer-Socialist Democratic Party built also generated anxieties because it includes an ultranationalist group, the Slovak National Party, and former authoritarian Premier Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia.


Dzurinda, however, said he was relieved to see that so far, Fico was only making "cosmetic" changes to the reforms his government put through. "They do really very, very small changes," Dzurinda said. "I notice that they are evidently afraid to do something substantial because they understand that the Slovak economy is fantastically healthy." "So now I am more optimistic about reforms to Slovakia," he said. But Dzurinda said he also fears that the government will fail to tackle other reforms left unfinished — such as to the health and education systems.
"The good news is that the government is afraid to completely abolish our reforms, especially in the area of the economy," he said. "But the bad news is that the government is very populist and unable to ensure continuity of our policy." "The less he (Fico) does, the better for the country," he said. Slovakia has seen strong economic growth and a sharp fall in unemployment in recent years.

On RogerH's suggestion origina story here :)

truth and lies

Commenting on a recent Slovak Radio article

"Prime Minister Robert Fico is convinced that his government achieved more for the people during three months than the Cabinets of Mikulas Dzurinda during eight years."



Macko says ---> This statement is not fully true, for working poor people maybe, but certainly not for unemployed Slovaks pensioners or economically inactive people. The leftist measures taken so far are logical and are not problematic, but if they carry on far to the left then that would not be desirable anymore. <---


After Fico's Cabinet approved the draft state budget for 2007 he said that in spite of bad starting points left by the previous government, they managed to prepare a good budget for people as well as for the trustworthiness of the Slovak crown, which has firmed to a record point.

Macko says ---> well that is not true, Slovakia can afford much more now that the european money and the economy upswing is benefiting the economy handsomely. This is misleading... <---



The budget deficit will be below 3 percent of gross domestic product. The Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAV) will get SKK 100 million more than originally proposed.

Macko says ---> wise decision and good for Slovakia so it can join the Euro. Its good for the future. <---



The Cabinet will also allocate SKK 5 million to secure an archeological site at Bojna in the Topolcany district. By this the Prime Minister wants to secure that significant findings, which can move dating of the arrival of Christianity in Slovakia before Saints Cyril and Methodius.

Macko says ---> this is not newsworthy... <---




The Cabinet wants to obtain money for its goals by savings in the state administration. "We will not obtain money to the detriment of people, i.e. by hikes in taxes and fees," said Fico.

Macko says ---> no tax hikes anywhere? in all taxes? for how long? <---





Next year ministries must reduce the number of employees in organizations fully or partially financed from the state budget by 20 percent. Their budgets will be lower by 10 percent and they should save 15 percent in public procurement. At the Defense Ministry this will also affect modernization, while the Foreign Affairs Ministry should re-assess the number of employees at embassies. Economy Minister Lubomir Jahnatek said after the Cabinet session that only one minister is satisfied with the state budget - Finance Minister Jan Pociatek. According to the Prime Minister, the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) governor Ivan Sramko also appraised the draft state budget.

Macko says ---> I vote for Ivan Sramko for PM :) <---

Vlado Meciar undermining the coalition just after 100 days... a taste of things to come...

Older and not wiser

A very interesting short from the state news agency SITA on what Vlado Meciar the merry crook dinosaur has said about his participation in the coalition...




"HZDS: We Want What Belongs to Us The governing-coalition HZDS party is dissatisfied with its position in the governing Coalition, Hospodarske noviny daily reports. HZDS chairman Vladimir Meciar has already provided hints about the possible consequences of this. HZDS MPs have shown their disagreement with the state budget proposals for 2007. In addition, according to Meciar, even the Cabinet's tax reforms will not be approved in Parliament.

First of all Meciar's party failed to receive the top posts it wanted, now the party's regional members are unhappy about the slow pace at which regional posts are being allocated. "Many of our people had to leave their posts very quickly in 1998 (when Meciar's HZDS-led government lost power). They want to come back now," said HZDS MP Milan Rehak. On the other hand, HZDS's coalition partner, the Slovak National Party (SNS) appears to be satisfied with the way power has been allocated. "

Press Watch: FT on Slovakia

Press Watch
Another one from the Financial times

"By contrast, Slovaks have lived through turbulent times. After escaping from Mr Meciar’s grip in 1998, the country embarked on liberal reforms and leapt from laggard to leader in post-Communist transition and attracted big foreign investors, headed by motor manufacturers. But with unemployment stubbornly high, voters lost patience and this summer elected Mr Fico on an anti-reform ticket. Despite warnings from EU partners, Mr Fico’s Smer party allied itself with Mr Meciar and Mr Slota’s nationalists.

Pavol Demes, head of central and eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund, a US public policy institution, says the worst fears about the Fico government have not been realised. However, Slovakias Hungarian minority is worried about Mr Slota, business people are concerned about how electoral promises will be reconciled with commitments to fiscal discipline and the Europe-wide Party of European Socialists is preparing to suspend Smer over its ties with the nationalists.

Business people are concerned about the divisive effects of the anti-Communist purge. However, they are less worried about macroeconomic policy: growth is strong and the budget is under control, with the planned 2006 and 2007 deficits below 3 per cent of gross domestic product – the ceiling for joining Europe’s monetary union.

Across the region, however, aspirations to membership of the eurozone have been a victim of post-accession politics. Before 2004, governments were pledging early entry – notably in Hungary, which wished to join by this year. But Hungary’s 2006 budget deficit target is a towering 10 per cent of GDP.

Slovakia remains committed to a firm date – 2009 – but there are doubts whether Mr Fico will stick to a timetable set by his predecessor. Some new EU members are well ahead, with Slovenia joining next year and the Baltic states due in 2008. But for the rest in central Europe, the aim is for 2010-14.

Postponing their single-currency ambitions allows governments to delay reforms required to bring deficits down to the euro-entry 3 per cent. Economists warn that central Europe is miss
ing an opportunity to undertake reforms that will be needed later, perhaps in more difficult conditions.

Meanwhile, developments in the region are affecting relations with EU partners. Poland, in particular, is finding it hard to square its new-found assertiveness with the need for EUwide co-operation, even in energy, where Warsaw wants close ties.

There is little danger that big west European states will turn on central Europe. But if central European countries develop unpredictable reputations they will find it harder to influence their partners. This is particularly important for further enlargement, favoured by most central Europeans.

Central Europe is not doomed to political irrelevance. Given its strong economic record and importance to world business, it will not be ignored. However, the region needs consistent and predictable leadership if it is to make its voice heard at the EU table.
"