Slovakia will have elections in June 2010 - Our predictions on the Slovak election

Most likely many people are wondering what happens next. (also enjoy the old pic of Robert he must have spent ages on that hair ) terrible :)

Here are some unscientific predictions (but then again remember there is no such thing as a scientific prediction)

1. Robert Fico the current PM will be re-elected (90%) but probably with more right-leaning coalition partners.
2. Taxes: "He emphasised that the government had not increased taxes (his measures are fiscally neutral) and added that any new government taking office after the June parliamentary elections must continue this trend. "
3. Vladimir Meciar is heading towards political oblivion without the 5% to make it to parliament (good riddance).

I think that eventually Fico will have to raise some more taxes somewhere because of the worldwide crisis, but it will not be by much.

In other news, results  of  a  telephone  survey carried  out  by  Polis  Slovakia  agency  show that  most  people  would  welcome  seeing a leftist-rightist  government  after  the  parliamentary  elections  in  June.  The  survey  was carried out on March 13-16 of  this year on a representative  sample  of  1,280 respondents Based  on  its  results,  38  percent  of  those polled want Slovakia to have a leftist-rightist government  after  the  elections,  18.7  percent of the respondents want a rightist government and 12.9 percent of people a leftist one. More than one in five participants do not care about the  orientation  of  the  government  after  the elections, while one  in ten respondents could not answer the question.

I generally believe that Fico got some big an important things right (euro, taxation etc) and alot of smaller things wrong and very wrong. The coalition parties he chose were the worst possible.

Would you buy a used car from this guy?

A blast from the past...

1995-1997 Meciar's handiwork

"In the period between 1995 and 1997, the board of the NPF decided on 887 direct sales, transfers of shares of state companies or state asset transfers with a total book value of SKK 103bn (US $3 billion at the time). The purchase price was, however, only 48 per cent of the book value. During the entire period, actual NPF privatisation-related revenues reached only 28.7 per cent of the book value of privatised assets.2 Opportunities for corruption and unlawful conduct were therefore mostly linked to the direct sales of privatised property where the NPF board exercised complete discretion over sales of some of the largest enterprises in Slovakia behind a curtain of secrecy. "

The good stuff is always on the PDFs ;)
read the case study by Transparency International PDF

Corruption and Fico

Slovak spectator has a very interesting article about Robert Thicko complaining about attempts to corrupt him. Now i have to say i didn't expect this, i actually find it very encouraging that he personally is prepared to talk about it.

Of course the obvious thing many will say is why doesn't he turn the corrupters to the authorities. The answer is simple, corruption at this level works in a VERY careful way, the real corrupters would never have met or have anything to do with the nexus of people doing the approaching to Fico so it is not that simple. Had he tried to reveal who they were or tried he might have been found dead after all. There are huge stakes in things like that. I think its courageous that he warned them off.

There is a serious underworld in every country including Slovakia of course they mainly grew under Meciar but since they 1990es they are being in effect pressed to clean up by buying legitimate businesses and shutting up and stop being criminal, so the country can join the EU mainstream in this respect also. Its unfair of course because these are ill gotten gains, but this is the history of most societies' development, its better to have these dangerous people running a shop rather than running the government or killing people (see Bulgaria Ukraine etc etc).

This is actually good news, him talking about it publicly should be recognised as a positive, and clearly distinguish him from Meciar. Maybe the guy is a true nationalist, wanting to do good for Slovakia. He might be slightly misguided on economics (But so was Dzurinda, the transpetrol or airport privatisations were "stupid" ones). But overall the trend is good. Fico is not outright corrupt. He didn't come to government for the money, it was his silence on this matter so far and the Meciar factor was my main concern, this move by him is laudable and we should recognise a positive development when we see one. If he wanted to make big bucks and build vila electra v.2 then he wouldn't say what he just has, he would keep quiet on the issue..

This ofcourse doesn't mean that
1. the bastards in the regions are not very corrupt further down the food chain HZDS in particular
2. we should stop keeping an eye on him. He is a young man and as far as i know he is not rich so he might be tempted still...
3. His ministers like Dzurinda's are a completely dodgy lot, Harabin in particular, Pociatek and Jahnatek.

my conclusion: If the economy is not defaced, the corruption is kept lower than Dzurinda, Slovakia joins the Euro and the price for all this will be a little bit of Socialism, Meciar still in politics but powerless, and we have to hear some pointless thundering about the evil hungarians now and then with no consequence, then i raise my glass of orange juice to Fico. If he does these things then he is a true patriot and has a very good chance becoming a respectable political leader of the center-left and deservedly so, but only if he keeps the conditions above...

see story here http://www.slovakspectator.sk/clanok.asp?cl=25018

Now Slovak spectator can take this stupid graphic off

"Fico claims attempts have been made to corrupt him

PRIME Minister Robert Fico suggested that there have been attempts to corrupt him. However, he has never filed any charges in this respect.

During an October 30 conference of the employers association Klub 500, Fico said that “had I agreed at the very beginning with the proposed procedure in the case of [oil transportation company] Transpetrol [which Slovakia is trying to buy back from the bankrupt Yukos], neither I nor 15 of my generations to come would have ever had to work again”.

Fico’s spokeswoman Silvia Glendová told Sme that the PM did not turn to the police because “he could be filing charges from morning till the evening”.

Svetlana Husárová, a spokeswoman of the Slovak General Attorney’s Office noted, however, that “it is a civic duty of the prime minister to file a criminal announcement if he has any such information”.

According to Fico there is a system in Slovakia that produces large amounts of money that serve to enrich individuals and to finance political parties.

“This is a system that is able to produce billions of crowns, which really are classic dirty crowns,” he said.

[10/31/2006 10:33:19 AM]"

shamelessly ripped off from lemuel

shamelessly ripped off from lemuel
here is our hungarian eater

http://www.myheritage.com

Those early years at the Communist party paid off note the natural poise and apparchik smile similarity between Mikhail and Fico...

and after a special request from Roger

http://www.myheritage.com

hmmm

step by step how to create your election winning coalition

some interesting ideas by a Slovak PHD student in Denmark on the recipe for winning elections (i would say that this could have worked in any country with a electoral system favouring coalitions )

Another interesting piece is how the European Union is civilising the Thatcherite excesses of the UK's anti employee stance:

1. Britain in the Social Chapter, giving British workers the rights already enjoyed by their continental colleagues.
   
   
2. implemented EU wide laws on working time, limiting the length of time workers can be obliged by their employer to work to 48 hours per week.
   
   
3. required, for the first time in Britain, a guaranteed right to paid holiday.
   
   
4. brought in the European works council laws giving new rights to workers in transnational companies.
   
   
5. introduced proper procedures for information & consultation of workers on all significant changes affecting companies with over 50 employees.
   
   
6. reversed the burden of proof in discrimination cases, putting the onus on employers to prove that they do not discriminate.
   
   
7. give both parents the right to time off when a child is born or adopted.
   
   
8. brought in measures to give part time workers the same rights as full time workers as regards training, pensions, maternity rights and leave.
   
   
9. improved the rights of temporary workers regarding pay and paid leave.
   
   
10. brought in fines for airlines for deliberate overbooking as well as doubled cash compensation for stranded air passengers with the right to meals, refreshments and hotel accommodation if necessary while passengers wait.
    

Meciar History

Unlike his political opponents Vladimir Meciar embraces the german model...

Vladimir Meciar, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia, was often feared and hated, and during his stay in power he proved to be a dictator-like leader. Meciar was the first prime minister of independent Slovakia.

For a typical sample of his distinctive style in political speeches please click here (part of the excellent blog Roger has)

In April, 2001, he reportedly said, "99% of what they were writing about me wasn't true, especially the negative part." Former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar blames the media for loss of popularity. He has sued the newspaper, but the Highest Court canceled the lawsuit outcome in early April of 2001 between the former Mr. Meciar's government and the daily newspaper SME, which was supposed to pay each government member a high fine for writing badly about them. This lawsuit has been getting much publicity in the last five years, as many saw it as a way to shut down the newspaper entirely.


Meciar was born on July 26, 1942. In a town of central Slovak called Zvolen. The small town was surrounded by rugged countryside and some hillside villages which provided Meciar with his personal and political basis. In 1959 he began to work for a local government administration in Ziar na Hronom as a clerk dealing with economic matters. In 1962 Meciar joined the communist party. Following that, in 1965, he graduated from Komsomol College in Moscow. The college was a training ground for young communists. He soon rose to become chairman at the District National Committee in Ziar. From 1967 through 1969, Meciar was the deputy chairman of the district People’s Control Committee.

Luring tactics were used in his campaigns. Meciar appealed to women. He has rugged features tipped off with a little lost boy smile. In 1994 he used his looks for a poster which the slogan said, “Only he can do it!” Meciar did not want to be left behind. He did all he could to keep on top of things. He was accused of blackmailing, brow beating his allies, and using authoritarian and dictatorial methods of governing. He was also charged by his enemies with personally creating a crisis which demonstrated his persistent political style of "Divide and Rule." He still managed to stay on the top whenever he was pushed down, and no other Slovak politician could even come close to him.

Meciar met his match with President Michal Kovac. The blood between Kovac and Meciar thickened when they battled for control over the secret service. Meciar won this battle and appointed a close ally, Ivan Lexa, as the head of the secret service. He accomplished this by having parliament vote to transfer the right of appointment of the head position from the president to the government. As if this wasn’t enough, another twist was added. Serious allegations of overt political use of the police and secret services were brought to attention by a saddening event. Michal Kovac Jr. was driven across the Slovak-Austrian border in the trunk of a car on August 31, 1995, and confined in connection with a fraud case in Germany. President Kovac publicly accused the secret service of kidnapping his son. But the only witness was a former police officer who was killed in a car explosion. And coincidentally two police investigators were removed from the case after implying that the secret service did take part. But no one could actually prove exactly what had happened, and Meciar said that repeatedly. And so it was, nothing was proven.

On a Slovak television program, Meciar denied lying about the course he took in his political life. He said, “Nobody has ever proved any lie by me.. I don’t accuse anybody, even when I know who is lying and when. I have more feelings for the truth in myself than all other Slovak politicians.” On a lighter subject, on the television program, Meciar describes himself as a hopeless romantic who likes to wander through towns or woods when the moon is full. He also said that his favorite composer is Tchaikovsky. He has a passion for watching wrestling until the late night hours.

Meciar had a large part in the split between Slovakia and the Czech Republic in January 1993. Although he did do this for his country, he was still censured by other foreign governments. Meciar’s party had won the general elections in 1998. He got the most individual votes with 470,556 oppose to 304,071 for Mikulas Dzurinda, one of his opponents. Despite the results in the general elections, Meciar’s party decided to nominate someone else to try and form a new government, ousting Meciar. Meciar then in October bid farewell to his followers. He did this in a rather unusual way. He said farewell to them in a song: “ I loved the life and I still love it. I lived in full, I gave you everything. And what am I supposed to do now? Let us sing: Farewell, I am leaving you, I didn’t hurt any of you. Be well."

Vladimer Meciar proved to be a powerful, dictator-like leader. Although some agreed with his ways and supported him, others thought that his authoritarian way of governing is the reason Slovakia has found itself in trouble.